Overnight Range 1.3104-1.3184
NOTE: This chart represents gain (or loss) of G10 currencies vs. the US dollar from NY close-July 28 (4pm) to July 29, 6:00 am PST
The Bank of Japan cooked the sushi. The government, led by the Prime Minister, primed the policy action pump by trumpeting a ¥28 trillion fiscal stimulus plan. FX markets kind of believed that the Bank of Japan would complement the government’s plans with new monetary stimulus. They didn’t. Instead they announced a “comprehensive review” of the asset purchase program. Traders didn’t know what to make of it. USDJPY soared and sank, peaking at 105.57 and bottoming out at 102.71, all within 15 minutes. It opened in New York at 103.65.
Aussie and Kiwi have bounced off their Asia lows and EURUSD is back above 1.1100. Eurozone CPI was a tad higher
Oil prices continued to decline. WTI dipped to $40.55 in Europe. Goldman Sachs analysts blame the firmer US dollar as the key factor driving prices lower. They forecast WTI to trade within a $45.00/$50.00 range until mid-2017, with the risks skewed to the downside.
The Canadian dollar has been rather choppy today. It dropped from 1.3180 to 1.3120 following this mornings US and Canadian data releases. The Canadian data wasn’t a factor (it was supposed to be weak) but the Q2 1.2% gain in the US was well below forecasts. That news will be unsettling for those looking for a September rate hike. There are rumours of USDCAD selling for month end portfolio rebalancing reasons.
USDCAD technical outlook.
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3190. The break below 1.3130 area will lead to a test of the 1.2990-1.3100 area, which if broken will extend losses to 1.3050. A move above 1.3200 puts 1.3250 in play. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3090 and 1.3050. Resistance is at 1.3190, 1.3210 and 1.3250
Today’s Range: 1.3050-1.3150