May 8, 2019
USDCAD Open (6:00 am EDT) 1.3474-77 Overnight Range 1.3456-1.3485
US/China trade negotiations headlines dominated global markets overnight. There were not any new developments, just comments from “sources” suggesting China was not negotiating in good faith. Reuters, quoting “sources,” said China made edits to nearly 150 pages of a draft agreement. China is accused of backtracking on previous commitments about intellectual property, forced transfers of technology, competition policy and currency manipulation.
The talks resume today under the specter of a bump in tariffs on Chinese imports to 25% beginning Friday.
Asia equity markets followed US equity markets lower led by a 1.46% drop in the Nikkei. European bourses followed suit, but the declines are marginal. US equity futures point to a lower opening on Wall Street. Rising US/Israel tensions with Iran and Iran’s threat to resume nuclear activities are also weighing on risk sentiment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand did what half the analysts expected and cut the OCR rate to 1.5% from 1.75%. The RBNZ said the move was necessitated to support their outlook for inflation and employment. NZDUSD plunged from 0.6603 to 0.6528 on the news, but prices rebounded to 0.6582 by the time New York opened. AUDUSD traded in tandem with NZDUSD, but in a much narrower range.
USDJPY is trading just above the overnight low of 109.92 on the back of soft US treasury yields and safe-haven demand for yen.
GBPUSD got hammered on speculation that the Conservatives and Labour’s attempt to reach a Brexit compromise will fail miserably. GBPUSD dropped steadily from 1.3079 to 1.3003 in early New York trading. Trendline and Fibonacci support are seen in the 1.2980-90 area.
EURUSD trade sideways in a narrow 1.1190-1.1211 range. German Industrial Production rose 5.0% in March but was ignored by FX traders.
USDCAD is tracking the US dollar index higher and getting an added boost from soft oil prices. The risks around the US/China trade talks and the API report that US crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels last week is more than offsetting geopolitical tensions around Iran.
There isn’t any US or Canadian data of note suggesting that trade headlines and Wall Street price action will drive FX markets, today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
USDCAD is stuck in a tight 1.3390-1.3490 range and has been since May 1. Prices are pressuring topside resistance at 1.3480 which if broken will extend gains to 1.3520. Above 1.3520 is clear sailing until 1.3650. Only a decisive break below 1.3290 would negate the topside pressure. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3440 and 1.3410. Resistance 1.3480 and 1.3520. Today’s Range 1.3440-1.3520
Chart: USDCAD daily