USDCAD Range 1.3015-1.3182
A series of Fed speakers today and over the weekend made hawkish noises and since they were all from the hawkish camp, the noises shouldn’t be unexpected. Nevertheless, they managed to give the US dollar a lift across the board with their suggestions that a 2015 rate hike remained a strong possibility.
USDCAD climbed off Friday’s roller-coaster ride and traded sideways throughout the Asia session before edging lower in Europe. Part of the Loonies modest gains can be attributed to a report that Opec is forecasting oil to be at $80.00/bbl by 2020, which is a grasping at straws type of move on a sketchy forecast. But that was Europe. In North America, USDCAD has rallied, despite the WTI bump higher due to general US dollar strength vs. the majors.
Japan is closed until Thursday for various holidays sucking out a ton of liquidity during the Asian time zone. Since the FOMC members pointed to China growth concerns as a recent for standing pat, Chinese PMI data on Wednesday may be a bigger factor for FX
Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz gives a speech in Calgary today which may provide clues as to how the BoC views the risks to the Canadian economy from a global economic slowdown. The text is available at 2:30 pm EDT
USDCAD continues to churn within the well-defined 1.3000-1.3350 range. There is a minor intraday downtrend which remains intact while trading below 1.3250 that will extend losses to 1.3110 on a break of 1.3180. The post rate cut rally from July ended with a break below 1.3200 last week which should limit the top to 1.3250-70 this week.
Today’s Range 1.3180-1.3250
Chart: USDCAD hourly