US ADP Employment rose 235,000 in September, well above the 200,000 forecast. The news gave the US dollar a bit of a lift against the majors. The job surge is payback from the out-sized decline in September because of hurricanes. Better than expected ISM Manufacturing (Forecast 59.5) and construction Spending (forecast 0.0%) may give the greenback additional support. After that, traders will get very quiet until the FOMC statement, due at 11:00 am PDT)
|Close 4:00 pm EDT-Open 6:00 am EDT|
The US dollar opened steady to flat after a mostly uneventful overnight session. Euro, Yen and Swiss lost ground while the Antipodeans, Sterling and the Loonie posted gains.
Kiwi was the star performer. NZDUSD rocketed higher, rising from 0.6846 to 0.6929 after better than expected employment data. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, a nine-year low
AUDUSD climbed after steady China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. (Actual 51.0 vs forecast 51.0)
USDJPY is currently trading at the overnight high (114.01) with demand stemming from higher US Treasury yields and hopes of a hawkish FOMC statement this afternoon.
Better-than-expected UK Manufacturing PMI (Actual 56.3 vs forecast 55.8) underpinned GBPUSD which firmed in a 1.3268-1.3319 range. Thursday’s Bank of England meeting and the prospect of a hawkish statement will support the currency.
EURUSD traded sideways in a 1.1626-1.1656 range. The technicals remain bearish, but traders are unwilling to push the downside until after the FOMC meeting.
Oil prices extended gains on reports that Opec and Russia improved their compliance with production cut quotas. Gold Prices climbed as traders adjust positions ahead of the FOMC and the Fed Chair announcement.
The Canadian dollar consolidated yesterday’s losses which occurred when Canada GDP was below forecasts. The GDP data all reinforced arguments that the Bank of Canada will leave rates unchanged, well into 2018, at the same time the US may be ramping up the pace of rate hikes, especially if the Fed gets a new Chair.
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.2780 looking for a break of the recent top (1.2912) to extend gains to 1..3000 and higher. A break below 1.2770 will lead down to 1.2710 and then 1.2680. Longer term, the uptrend from September is in place while prices are above 1.2610. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2850 and 1.2810. Resistance is at 1.2920 and 1.2970
Today’s Range 1.2850-1.2950
Chart: USDCAD 1 hour