FX markets are adrift in a sea of uncertainty. The looming Jackson Hole Symposium has put a damper on trading activity in the off-chance that Fed Chair Janet Yellen or European Central Bank President Mario Draghi offer some clarity on monetary policy. A lack of top tier US economic data has also crimped trading activity.
EURUSD just pulled back from 1.1805 in New York after hitting a low of 1.1741 overnight. The single currency garnered support from better than expected (but preliminary) Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI data. (Actual 57.4 vs. forecast 56.3). Germany’s PMI report was also better than expected.
USDJPY had a short-lived rally in Asia. It peaked at 109.81 and found a bottom in New York at 109.02.
Brexit concerns have kept GBPUSD locked in a 1.2793-1.2832 range, although the short term technicals are bearish.
The antipodeans are range bound. NZDUSD got smacked in Asia when the New Zealand Treasury lowered 2018 GDP forecasts in a pre-election budget update.
USDCAD has recouped yesterday’s post Retail Sales losses due to profit taking and fresh concerns about NAFTA. Last night, in Wyoming, President Trump stirred the NAFTA pot again. He said, “I personally don’t think you can make a deal without a termination.”
Trump also threatened to shut-down the government if he doesn’t get the funding for the US/Mexico border wall, perhaps a debt-ceiling negotiation ploy?
Oil prices were a tad softer overnight. The API Weekly Crude stocks change report released at the end of the day, yesterday, showed that inventories shrank by 3.9 million barrels. That number appeared to have been leaked, earlier. Overnight, traders’ prices softened on news that Libya’s largest oilfield was restarting production.
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are modestly bullish with a break above 1.2610 targeting resistance at 1.2680. A move below the 1.2530-50 area would shift the focus to 1.2415. That view is supported by the break of the downtrend line from the August 15 top of 1.2765 with the move above 1.2560, overnight.
The daily charts suggest USDCAD is oversold and likely to consolidate inside a 1.2505-1.2705 range
Today’s Range 1.2550-1.2630
Chart: USDCAD 4 hour