Overnight Range 1.3426-1.3489
The US dollar is not going quietly into Thanksgiving. Robust data ensured that. The ever-volatile US Durable Goods report was surprisingly strong and not just because of aircraft orders. October Durable Goods rose 4.8%, ex-transportation gained 1.0%, handily beating forecasts. Jobless Claims were above forecasts but were still strong. EURUSD dropped from 1.0625 to 1.0560 while USDJPY jumped to 1.1207 from 1.1118. The USDCAD move was a tad less aggressive, rising to 1.3486 from 1.3460
While all the US data was being dumped, Sterling traders were engrossed in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement. Philip Hammond didn’t offer a lot in the way of surprises except to announce that this would be the final Autumn Statement. It will be replaced by an autumn Budget and a Spring statement
The US dollar was steady, overnight. Traders were content to bide their time ahead of key data releases and the UK Autumn statement. Sterling rallied and then declined to 1.2360.
In Asia, Japan was closed for a national holiday which greatly reduced FX liquidity. USDJPY traded either side of 111.00 in uneventful trade.
Aussie traders ignored weaker than expected Construction report and instead focused on a rise in iron ore prices. That move soon stalled.
NZDUSD edged higher on positive sentiment from the buoyant Wall Street close and higher commodity prices. But the move was reversed in Europe.
In Europe, EURUSD traded sideways in Asia and then dropped from 1.0640 to 1.0600 inn early European trading. A slew of modestly positive Eurozone PMI data reversed the losses and EURUSD bounced back to 1.0630. The data is overshadowed by the looming Italian referendum and Brexit negotiations.
Oil traders found solace in yesterday’s end of day American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Stocks Change report that showed a decline in inventories of 1.27 million barrels. That was enough for WTI to eke out some modest gains. Rumours around the Opec production cap negotiations will continue to dominate trading. WTI opened in New York at $9.19/barrel.
Asia equity indices (except for Japan’s Nikkei which was closed) rallied following Wall Street’s lead but that rally did not extend into Europe. European indices are all slightly lower except for the UK FTSE 100. US equity futures are suggesting a lower Wall Street open.
USDCAD traded sideways overnight but with a bullish bias. The drop in oil prices and this morning’s strong US data has put the Canadian dollar on the defensive.
It will be a short day for American traders. The FOMC minutes from the November 2nd meeting will be released today at 11:00 am PDT. There impact will be subdued as many US traders will have headed home for the holidays.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals flipped to bullish with yesterday’s break above 1.3430, the November 18 downtrend line, which has now reverted to the base of a minor uptrend line. This mornings break above 1.3460 puts 1.3510 in play, with 1.3540 lurking in the background. A move below 1.3430 will shift the focus back to the 1.3370 area.
Today’s Range 1.3440-1.3510
Chart; USDCAD 30 minute