US Retail Sales beats forecasts, rising 0.5 in March. (Forecast 0.3%, February -0.1% m/m) The arrival of previously delayed US tax refund cheques contributed to the rally.
FX markets could have had a nasty start to the week after the US, UK and France joined forces to launch 105 missiles at three targets in Syria. That wasn’t the case. Russia reacted with the usual indignation but nothing more.
Oil traders reacted immediately. WTI dropped from $67.53 to $66.13 on the news but has since bounced to $66.62. Diminished geopolitical risks and an improved tone in global trade negotiations has underpinned prices.
FX markets were quiet and range bound in a dull session. There wasn’t any economic data of note. USDJPY opened at the session high of 107.60 and dropped to 107.14. Prime Minister Abe’s political woes contributed to the weakness. If he goes, so does “Abenomics.”
AUDUSD and NZDUSD traded sideways inside narrow ranges although both currency pairs were mildly bid due to the improving global trade outlook.
EURUSD bounced from 1.2325 in Europe to 1.2372 when New York opened, supported by general US dollar weakness. The single currency remains locked inside a 1.2200-1.2460 range.
Sterling continues to be underpinned by expectations for higher UK rates and diminished Brexit risks, although large long sterling speculative positioning is a drag on upside moves.
Wall Street futures indicate a positive opening supported by the confidence of strong corporate earnings being reported this week.
USDCAD continues to consolidate within a 1.2550-1.2620 range. The rosier outlook for the Nafta negotiations, firm oil prices, bearish technicals and the risk of a slightly hawkish Bank of Canada policy statement is undermining the currency pair.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
USDCAD continues to consolidate recent losses in a 1.2550-1.2620 range. For today, a break either side may result in a 0.0050 point move. USDCAD needs to break above 1.2680 to negate the negative pressure. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2550 and 1.2510. Resistance is 1.2620 and 1.2660
Today’s Range 1.2550-1.2620