USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2502-1.2541

FX markets started the week seemingly still catching their breath from Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls hijinks.  It was either that or they remained flummoxed by the Grammy Awards, red carpet shower theme.  Kim Kardashian wore a shiny, one size too small bathrobe while Rihanna wore the world’s largest pink body scrub.

This week won’t be about US or Canadian data due to the lack of both quality and quantity. Instead the focus will be on Greece debt talks and Russia/Ukraine.  The EU is frantically trying to broker a ceasefire while the US is insisting on escalation by arming Ukraine.

USDCAD trading will track general US dollar movements and WTI prices for the next few days.  Canadian dollar sentiment is negative but that is offset to a degree by long USDCAD positioning. WTI (Currently $52.04) is in a modest uptrend from the Jan 26 low while trading above $50.00/bbl.  The uptick in oil prices may be more a factor of profit taking rather than the start of a new rally.

USDCAD technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are modestly bullish following Friday’s break of minor downtrend resistance at 1.2480. However, the failure to extend gains above 1.2580 plus the retracement below 1.2510 suggests further consolidation within a 1.2400-1.2580 is likely. Intraday USDCAD support is at 1.2480, 1.2440 and 1.2380.  Resistance is at 1.2560, 1.2580 and 1.2620.

Chart: USDCAD hourly with showing expected consolidation