USDCAD   Overnight Range 1.2545-1.2585    

USDCAD has bounced from the overnight lows in concert with a firming US dollar although volumes are extremely light due to the US Independence Day holiday.  Traders are still digesting the implications of yesterday’s NFP data (223K)  which was fairly close to expectations but disappointed those looking for an upside surprise. There is a debate as to whether the data was sufficiently disappointing to delay a Fed rate cut. The Walls Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath doesn’t think so.

AUDUSD was the big mover overnight dropping from 0.7640 to 0.7520 on a combination of soft domestic data (Retail Sales) and lower than expected Chinese data (HSBC services PMI). USDJPY edged lower on what may be a bit of risk aversion demand for JPY due to Sunday’s Greek referendum.

Today’s US holiday and Sunday’s Greek referendum have put a damper on FX trading today. A yes vote should mean more negotiation with the EU while a NO vote could turn nasty.  The Sunday night/ New Zealand morning opening will be exciting. Unfortunately, the rest of today won’t be.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday technical are bullish while trading above 1.2530 looking for a recovery above 1.2590 to extend gains to 1.2630, the Thursday peak. A move above that level opens up further gains to 1.2680 and then 1.2820.  A move below 1.2530 would retrace back to 1.2490 and imply additional 1.2490-1.2630 consolidation.

Today’s Range 1.2540-1.2605

Chart: USDCAD hourly with short term uptrends and resistance shown