March 26, 2025
- Trump puts copper tariffs on the agenda.
- US Durable Goods Orders rise less than expected.
- USD opens on a mixed note.
FX at a Glance
USDCAD: open 1.4253, overnight range 1.4247-1.4299, close 1.4280
USDCAD traders do not fear tariffs, perhaps in the belief that former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is the messiah, returning to save Canada from the big bad Trump. Carney and his Liberal party are leading in the polls and USDCAD is probing uptrend line support in the 1.4240 zone.
The sell-off may be due to hopes that Canada may escape the worst of Trump’s tariffs, with autos and auto parts exempt. The threat of tariffs on Canadian copper exports is a negative, as Canada is the top supplier of copper products to the US.
Even so, the downside is limited as Trump’s plan for tariffs are a huge negative for global growth and Canadian growth is already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
WTI oil prices are at a three-week high, rising from 69.07 to 69.70 overnight, fueled by falling US crude inventories and fears that new sanctions on Iran and Venezuela will reduce supply.
US Durable Goods Orders for February rose more than expected (actual 0.9% m/m vs forecast -0.1%) but less than in January (Actual 3.3%). Traders ignored the results.
USDCAD Technicals
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.4280 and looking for a decisive break below 1.4240 to extend losses to 1.4170. A move above 1.4270 negates the negative pressure and shifts the focus to 1.4350.
The medium-term outlook is still bullish, but confidence is waning. The MACD is signalling bearish momentum, but the RSI is near oversold levels. A break below 1.4240 targets 1.4170 then the 50% Fibonacci retracement line (October–February range) at 1.4103.
For today, USDCAD support is 1.4240 and 1.4210. Resistance is at 1.4280 and 1.4320.
Today’s Range: 1.4210-1.4310
Chart: USDCAD 1 day
Markets Direction is as Clear as Mud
Up? Down? Sideways? Only the Trumpster knows (and those accidentally included in top-secret Signal discussions with Trump Cabinet members).
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is “off the charts” as Administration officials and Trump contradict each other many times per day. One minute, tariffs will be broadly implemented, the next they will be more targeted and less expansive. Trump is now pushing for tariffs on copper to be imposed far sooner than expected—in weeks rather than months.
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, perhaps, maybe. Russia says the deal doesn’t happen until sanctions against Russian banks, producers, and exporters in food are removed. And while both sides were talking, Russia attacked the central Ukraine city of Kryvyi Rih.
Equities Indexes Playing Defence
Asian equities closed with gains led by Australia’s ASX 200 rising 0.71%, which got a lift from lower-than-expected February inflation data. Japan’s Topix and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.55% and 0.60% respectively. European bourses are in the red led by a 0.59% drop in the French CAC 40. The UK FTSE 100 is the outlier—it has gained 0.57%.. S&P 500 futures are close to unchanged while the US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.35%.
EURUSD
NY Open: 1.0797, Overnight Range: 1.0778-1.0803
EURUSD waffled in a narrow range. Positive sentiment from yesterday’s German IFO data has faded in the march toward the April 2 reciprocal tariff day. ECB Board member and French central bank boss Francois Villeroy’s comments eroded EURUSD support when he said the ECB benchmark rate could be 50 bps lower to 2.0% by the summer. The tariff threat will cap EURUSD gains at 1.0950.
GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.2912, Overnight Range: 1.2887-1.2950
GBPUSD is under pressure after UK headline and core inflation rose a tick less than expected. (Headline CPI 2.8% y/y, forecast 2.9%, January 3.0%) and Core-CPI 3.5%, forecast 3.6%, January 3.7% y/y). GBPUSD traders are sidelined ahead of the Spring (budget) statement later today.
USDJPY
NY Open: 150.10, Overnight Range: 149.84-150.62
USDJPY peaked in Asia then dropped to 150.10 by the NY open despite bearish USDJPY comments by a government official and BoJ board member. Junko Koeda, who is on the board of the central bank, admitted that interest rates are extremely low and that inflation was heading to the bank’s target. LDP government official Satsuki Katayama said she believed USDJPY should be around 120.00-130.00.
AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6323, Overnight Range: 0.6279-0.6330
AUDUSD tested yesterday’s 0.6279 low after February inflation rose less than expected (actual 2.4% y/y, vs forecast and previous 2.5%) but quickly bounced on tariff news. Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on copper imports boosted copper prices to an all-time high of $5.374/pound. Australia exports an insignificant amount of copper to America.
NZDUSD
NY Open: 0.5757, Overnight Range: 0.5715-0.5763
NZDUSD is trading near the top of its overnight range with prices supported by AUDUSD gains. Traders remained sidelined ahead of Trump’s tariff “Liberation Day.”
USDMXN
NY Open: 20.0984, Overnight Range: 20.0444-20.1136
USDMXN is spinning its wheels ahead of the Banxico rate decision on Thursday (50 bp cut), and tariff Tuesday. The OECD warned that tariffs could lead to a recession in 2025.
FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)
China Snapshot`
PBoC fix: .1754 vs exp. 7.2559 (Prev. 7.1788)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.33% to 3919.36
Chinese trade delegation meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik and USTR Jamieson Greer today
Morgan Stanley upgraded its China GDP forecast to 4.5% for 2025, matching last week’s upgrades by HSBC and the OECD.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com,
