June 19, 2025

USDCAD: open 1.3715, overnight range 1.3686-1.3730, close 1.3696

USDCAD extended yesterday’s gains in a 1.36686-1.3730 range overnight. Yesterday,  the currency pair traded with a bullish bias following US economic data and the beat of war drums out of Washington. USDCAD rallied further after the somewhat hawkish FOMC outcome.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned of rising prices if the US tariff assault on the Canadian economy continues beyond what Prime Minister Carney said was “a 30-day” negotiating window.

Geopolitics, the Fed’s interest rate outlook and Trump’s tariffs are driving USDCAD direction and tomorrow’s Canadian data (retail sales, industrial product price, and raw materials) will have minimal impact.

USDCAD Technical Outlook: The intraday technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3690 supported by the break above 1.3650 on Tuesday. A failure to break above 1.3780 suggests the rally is a correction while a break would extend gains toward 1.4020.

Longer term, the USDCAD outlook is bearish below 1.4000. USDCAD is targeting a retest of resistance at 1.3750 if prices hold above 1.3650 and are looking for a move to resistance at 1.3770. 

For today, USDCAD support is 1.3680 and 1.3650.  Resistance is 1.3750 and 1.3780. Today’s Range 1.3680-1.3770

Markets in Brief

US Markets closed for “Juneteenth”

“Too Late—Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who’s costing America $Billions.” That was Trump’s reaction to the FOMC decision to leave monetary policy unchanged, which was expected. Powell and company remain leery of rising inflation risks from Trump’s tariffs.

Swiss National Bank cuts benchmark rate by 25 bps to 0.0%, as expected.

Trump playing coy about US involvement in Israel/Iran war, but says he has approved attack plans.

WTI oil drifts higher on news that Israel and Iran trade missile strikes and on fears that US involvement could seriously disrupt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI traded in a 72.65-74.49 range and is at 72.77 at the time of writing.

No US or Canadian economic data on tap.

Stock Taking

Wall Street closed on a mixed to flat note, but geopolitical tensions and a somewhat hawkish Fed drove Asian stocks lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.99%, Japan’s TOPIX fell 0.58%, while Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat.

European bourses are trading in negative territory. The UK FTSE 100 is down 0.24% ahead of the BoE decision, while the French CAC 40 index has lost 0.64% and the German Dax is down 0.24%. S&P 500 futures have lost 0.34%. Gold (XAUUSD) climbed from a low of 3347.73 to 3371.34.

EURUSD

EURUSD consolidated yesterday’s losses in a 1.1475-1.1524 range overnight. The single currency ignored better than expected ZEW data on Tuesday and today’s Eurozone harmonized inflation data, which came in as expected, had no bearing on FX. EURUSD traders are assessing the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and fear an increase would derail ECB rate cuts.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading nervously in a 1.3393-1.3440 range then fell from the top after the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 4.25% in a split decision. Six of nine policymakers voted to leave rates unchanged while three wanted a cut.

USDJPY

USDJPY climbed steadily, rising from 144.74 to 145.54 where it is sitting at the time of writing. Prices are supported by the hawkish-sounding FOMC result and a report that the Ministry of Finance will cut its issuance of 20-, 30-, and 40-year JGB’s. That move should put downward pressure on yields and support USDJPY.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD dropped from 0.6512 on the heels of the FOMC decision then extended the losses to 0.6460 after a weaker than expected Australian employment report.  Australia lost 2500 jobs, but they were all part-time so the FX reaction seems overdone. Analysts suggest the data will further encourage the RBA to cut rates in August.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD traded lower in a 0.5965-0.6034 range despite higher than expected Q1 GDP which rose 0.8% q/q compared to 0.5% previously.

USDMXN

USDMXN rose from 19.0001 to 19.1161 due to broad US dollar strength from escalating Iran/Israeli tensions and the outlook for unchanged US interest rates at least until September.

USDCNY

PBoC fix: 7.1729 vs exp. 7.1916 (prev. 7.1761)
Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 0.88% to 3843.09

FX HIGH, LOW, OPEN (AS OF 6:00 AM ET)

FX data source: Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg / OANDA. Charts: Insert image or URL if applicable.

–