September 11, 2025

USDCAD open 1.3883, overnight range 1.3859-1.3891, close, 1.3864

USDCAD  retreated from the top of its overnight range  following todays data but continues to underperform against the traditional commodity currency bloc, Australia and New Zealand. That’s because Canada’s largest trade partner wants a divorce and Canada has failed to develop alternative trading relationships.

The Mark Carney government refuses to exploit the 171 billion barrels of proven crude reserves. He is announcing a list of “nation building” projects today which won’t include new pipelines. Instead, at the top of the list will be wind and solar power projects to power a non-existent electricity grid to charge electric vehicles that no one wants. And that’s how Canada will prosper.

WTI oil prices are steady in a 63.10-63.80 range. Prices are supported by geopolitical tensions but gains are limited due to concerns about oversupply.

Canada Building Permits and Capacity Utilization data is due.

USDCAD Technical Outlook:

The intraday technicals are unchanged from yesterday. They are bullish above 1.3820 and are looking for a break above 1.3910 to test the 1.3930-1.3950 resistance zone. A move below 1.3820 targets 1.3760 and suggests further 1.3660-1.3860 consolidation.

The medium-term picture is bullish supported by the decisive break above the 100 day and 10 day moving averages. The symmetrical triangle formation warns that a topside break of resistance in the 1.3920-1.3950 zone would open the door to further gains to 1.4450, although good resistance would be seen at 1.4020 and 1.4150.

For today, USDCAD support is 1.3850 and 1.38100.  Resistance is 1.3920 and 1.3950. Today’s Range: 1.3840-1.3940.

Waiting for Something New

FX markets are choppy but rangebound and traders seem to have turned a deaf ear to geopolitical issues and Donald Trump’s “tariffs on, tariffs off” mantra. Global equity indexes continue to march higher. Oracle shares soared on AI infrastructure deals and an immense cloud contract backlog. Investors were so thrilled that they drove founder Larry Ellison’s net worth up by $100 billion in a day and, as of yesterday, he is within a billion dollars of claiming Elon Musk’s title as the richest man in the world.

Another Day, Another Inflation Report

US inflation is in focus again. Today’s data was “meh”—CPI rose 2.9% y/y as expected and Core-CPI was unchanged at 3.1%. A few months ago, inflation would have been a bigger deal but since Powell’s turned his focus to jobs, todays upside surprise to weekly jobless claims (actual 263,000 vs forecast 237,00) may aggravate 50 bp rate cut chatter.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indexes closed on a mixed note. Japan’s Topix rose 0.22%, Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.29%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.43%.

As of 7:15 am EDT, European equities are higher. The French CAC 40 is up by 0.87%, the UK FTSE 100 has climbed 0.52%, the German DAX has gained 0.22% and S&P 500 futures are up 0.21%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to 97.98, Gold is down to $3,620.49, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.045%.

EURUSD

EURUSD is trading with a slight negative bias in a 1.1677-1.1707 range ahead of today’s ECB rate decision when rates will be left unchanged. Analysts expect a lively debate between hawks and doves about future direction, but with the current rate considered mildly accommodative, rates are likely to be left unchanged for the balance of the year. French political issues are a drag on gains.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD drifted lower in a 1.3495-1.3540 range on general US dollar strength ahead of the American data releases today. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s UK data, which includes GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, and the trade balance.

USDJPY

USDJPY continued to shuffle in a 147.28-147.99 range. Traders are undecided as to whether the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will derail Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded lower in a 0.6599-0.6623 range due to position adjusting ahead of the US data. However, prices remain supported because of reduced odds that the RBA will lower interest rates in the near term.

USDMXN

USDMXN recouped yesterday’s losses in an 18.5807-18.6435 band due to mild US dollar demand overnight ahead of the US inflation data today. The April downtrend line is intact below 18.7900 and supported by earlier comments from Banxico officials suggesting the pace of rate cuts would slow.

USDCNY

PBoC fix: 7.1034 vs exp. 7.1157 (Prev. 7.1062)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 2.31% to 4448.03.

Stocks rallied hard on demand for AI and tech stocks and from hopes for additional stimulus by regulators

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics