October 8, 2025

USDCAD open 1.3957, overnight range 1.3938-1.3971, close, 1.3949

USDCAD isn’t doing much of anything and continues to seesaw within this week’s trading range. Political drama in France, Japan, and the US has given the greenback a bit of a safe-haven bid, while the lack of actionable US economic data has sidelined traders.

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Trump in Washington and returned home empty-handed. There was no tariff relief, just a lot of talk from Canada–US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc about how both sides are “working hard” to negotiate a deal.

WTI oil is trading higher in a 62.08–62.68 range, despite support from the smaller-than-expected November production increase fading. Traders also ignored the latest API crude stocks data, which showed inventories rising by 2.78 million barrels.

There are no economic reports from Canada or the US today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday technicals remain bullish above the 1.3890–1.3900 area, looking for a break above 1.3970 (4-hour chart) to extend gains toward 1.4020. A move below 1.3930 would target 1.3890.

The medium-term technicals are unchanged—still bullish but requiring a decisive break above 1.4000 to set the stage for further gains to 1.4120. Failure to take out 1.4000 risks additional consolidation within the 1.3700–1.4000 range.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3920 and 1.3840. Resistance is at 1.3990 and 1.4020.
Today’s Range: 1.3920–1.3990.

In Gold We Trust

Take a bow, Mr. Trump — your actions have almost single-handedly fueled a nearly 50% rally in gold (XAUUSD) since you took the throne as the 47th President and first Emperor of the USA. Non-stop verbal attacks and lawsuits aimed at crushing the independence of the Fed, unilaterally tearing up decades-old trade relationships, marginalizing allies, and attempting to use the US armed forces to quell dissent across America have sent investors worldwide scrambling for alternatives to the US dollar.

FOMC Minutes and Fed -Speak Ahead

The minutes from the FOMC meeting on September 17 are due. That’s the meeting where rates were lowered by 25 bps to 4.25%, with the newest but temporary governor, Stephen Miran, dissenting in favor of a 50 bp cut. The minutes may remind traders of the Fed’s dovish outlook, which should weigh on the US dollar. Ahead of the release, Fed officials Alberto Musalem, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, and Lorie Logan will expound on the decision to various audiences across the US.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indices were uninspired. Japan’s Topix closed with a 0.24% gain, while Australia’s ASX 200 fell by 0.10%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.48%.

As of 5:30 a.m. PDT, European equities are rallying, with the French CAC-40, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.84%, while the German DAX trails with a 0.68% gain. The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased from its overnight peak of 98.99 to its session low of 98.77 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.101%.

EURUSD

EURUSD lost more ground, falling from 1.1662 to 1.1606 before rising to 1.1618 in NY. French politics remain a huge negative for the single currency, with President Macron’s deadline for the Prime Minister to form a government expiring tonight. ING Economics reports that betting markets place a 65% probability of an election being called by the end of next week. German industrial production fell 4.3% (forecast -1.3%), increasing recession risks. A break below 1.1575 targets 1.1390.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD chopped around in a 1.3384–1.3433 range. The currency is being weighed down by general US dollar strength, global risk aversion, and spillover from French political drama. Ongoing UK budget concerns are another factor. Furthermore, the EU plans to hike tariffs on imported steel, the UK’s most important steel export market. The downside may be limited because today’s FOMC minutes will remind traders that the Fed outlook is dovish.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded with a bid in a 151.74–153.00 range and is near the top of that band in New York. The election of Sanae Takaichi as head of the LDP party and next Prime Minister continues to fuel the rally amid expectations her fiscal stimulus plans will prevent the BoJ from raising rates.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded narrowly in a 0.6557–0.6580 range, with general US dollar strength weighing on the pair. Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand caught traders off guard by slashing its benchmark rate by 50 bps to 2.5%, signaling more cuts to come.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways in an 18.3849–18.4365 range, with prices underpinned by broad-based US dollar demand. Traders are also awaiting Mexican inflation data (forecast 0.27% in September), which will be released tomorrow.

USDCNY

PBoC fix: 7.1055 vs exp. 7.1166 (prev. 7.1089) – CLOSED
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.45% to 4640.69 – CLOSED

China’s Golden Week holidays ended today, with the Ministry of Transport reporting that total trips during the break exceeded 2.4 billion, up 6.2% over 2024. Trump says he will meet President Xi Jinping in South Korea in a few weeks. China extends its 11-month gold-buying streak.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics