October 9, 2025
USDCAD open 1.3948, overnight range 1.3933-1.3964, close, 1.3954
USDCAD remained rangebound but the dovish-sounding FOMC minutes suggest limited downside.
Prime Minister Mark Carney didn’t get a win when he went to Washington, but the Toronto Blue Jays left New York, headed to the American League Champion Series while the Yankees headed to the golf course. Tariff that Trump!
Mr Carney tried to spin the Canada/US relationship in a positive light. He told the US-Canada summit in Toronto yesterday that “There is still a very deep, enduring and reinforcing relationship between Canada and the United States. As Canadians, we benefit from that.”
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took the opposite approach. He said the US comes first and it will build all American cars in the US. Canada can be number two.
WTI oil drifted in a 61.81-62.87 range and is trading at 62.16 in NY. Traders are opening that the Israel/Hamas ceasefire reduces the risk of oil supply disruptions.
There are no economic reports from Canada but plenty of Fed officials offering opinions.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are unchanged. The two-week range of 1.3885-1.3985 is still intact and there is nothing on the horizon today that should change that. A break above 1.3990 should lead to a 1.4020. while a break below 1.3930 would target 1.3890.
The medium-term technicals are unchanged—still bullish but requiring a decisive break above 1.4000 to set the stage for further gains to 1.4120. Failure to take out 1.4000 risks additional consolidation within the 1.3700–1.4000 range.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3920 and 1.3840. Resistance is at 1.3990 and 1.4020.
Today’s Range: 1.3920–1.3990.
FOMC Minutes, Middle East and Shutdown
The FOMC minutes revealed a cautious cabal of policymakers, acknowledging upside risks to inflation, while a slim majority are looking to trim rates for the rest of this year. Seven other policymakers didn’t think any more cuts were needed. We may hear more on monetary policy today from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose pre-recorded remarks to a community banking conference are released.
Trump announced a ceasefire in Israel’s war against the terrorist group Hamas, proving once and for all that “the US does negotiate with terrorists,” contrary to official government policy. But like all Trump announcements, the reality is a tad different—hostages may be released soon and Israel will withdraw troops to some area.
Meanwhile, the US government remains shut down. However, Trump has flip-flopped on back pay for furloughed workers, admitting that they will get paid, mainly because in the US it is the law that he signed. It was Biden-esque—Trump probably just forgot that detail.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indices followed Wall Street higher. Japan’s Topix rose 0.68%, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.25%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.29%.
As of 7:00 a.m. EDT, European equities are adrift. The French CAC-40 has risen by 0.22%, and the German DAX is up 0.27%. The UK FTSE 100 is down 0.37%, while S&P 500 futures are flat. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 98.95 after reaching 99.10 overnight, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.122%.
EURUSD
EURUSD traded defensively in a 1.1603–1.1649 range thanks to the ongoing French political drama and weaker-than-expected German trade data. The single currency is getting a bit of support as OAT/Bund 10-year yield spreads narrow a bit. The ECB meeting minutes are due later today.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD had a bit of a wild ride in a 1.3343–1.3420 range and is trading at 1.3389 in early NY. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann argued for keeping monetary policy restrictive to restore consumer confidence by driving inflation lower.
USDJPY
USDJPY traded in a 152.41–153.22 range, with prices continuing to be supported by the fallout from the election of Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Ms. Takaichi believes that the government should control fiscal and monetary policy and that the BoJ’s role is to adopt policies to fulfil that policy. That has spooked traders, and long-term short-US dollar positions continue to be squeezed.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded erratically but with a small bid in a 0.6570–0.6611 range. October’s consumer inflation expectations report ticked up to 4.8% from 4.7%. The news gave the currency a bit of support because it means the RBA has more ammunition to justify leaving interest rates unchanged.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded sideways in an 18.3122–18.3620 range. The intraday technicals are bearish while prices are below 18.4500, with the negative bias being reinforced by the somewhat dovish FOMC minutes. Mexican inflation data is due later today, followed by the minutes from Banxico’s September 25 meeting.
USDCNY
PBoC fix: 7.1102 vs exp. 7.1484 (Prev. 7.1055)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4709.48
China stocks roared back, underpinned by bullish AI sentiment. Beijing flexed its rare-earth muscles and announced further restrictions on rare-earths by tightening export contracts and widening restrictions on processing technology to include overseas defence and semiconductor users.
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
