Agility Forex Daily
October 24, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.4020, overnight range 1.3974-1.4033 close, 1.3994
“The Ronald Reagan Foundation has just announced that Canada has fraudulently used an advertisement, which is FAKE, featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about Tariffs. The ad was for $75,000,000. They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts. TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A. Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT” (DJT stands for Delusional Jerkwad Tyrant).
This is the link to the original Reagan speech
In the US, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal because the law does not grant presidents authority to set or collect tariffs, which belong to Congress.
WTI oil is 7.7% higher than it was at the start of the week. Prices rose from 61.24 to 62.11 overnight due to Trump, again. His latest sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil sparked concerns of a supply shortage. Meanwhile, Germany’s energy needs are intertwined with Rosneft, and the country is asking the U.S. for an exemption.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish after the overnight move above 1.4005 snapped this week’s downtrend. Prices are looking for a break above resistance at 1.4030 to extend gains to 1.4070. A dip below 1.3990 would negate the upside pressure.
The medium-term technicals are bullish supported by the uptrend line since July and are looking for further gains to 1.4120 while prices are above 1.3920.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4005 and 1.3980. Resistance is at 1.4030 and 1.4070
Today’s Range: 1.4005-1.4070.
Long-delayed US CPI today-Non Event
The US inflation numbers for September are showed headline and Core CPI rising 3.0% a tick below the 3.1% expected. It also means the outlook for lower US interest rates is unchanged. However, the data is sketchy due to many reasons including the government shutdown. Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Derek Holt wrote, “A record share of over one-third of the CPI basket is now being estimated with alternative methods rather than hard data.” Nevertheless, the US dollar gave back some its earlier gains, post-data.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indexes closed higher except for Australia’s ASX 200, which slipped 0.15%. Japan’s Topix climbed 0.48% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.74%.
As of 5:30 AM PDT, European indexes gave up earlier gains and are trading in negative territory. The French CAC-40 is down 0.63%, the U.K. FTSE 100 is flat and Germany’s DAX is down 0.16%. S&P 500 futures have risen 0.29% while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.02. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.963% from its pre-data level of 4.008%. Gold (XAUUSD) trades at 4083.08
EURUSD
EURUSD traded with a mild bid in a 1.1601-1.1649 range with the top seen after the US CPI data. Prices were also supported by higher-than-expected PMI data. Manufacturing PMI was 50 (forecast 49.5), Services PMI was 52.6 (forecast 51.1) and Composite PMI was 52.2 (forecast 51). German data also topped expectations, although German manufacturing PMI at 49.6 remained in contraction territory. Trading was muted ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and the Trump/Xi meeting in South Korea.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD spiked to the top of its 1.3301-1.3370 range after todays US data. Early, GBPUSD was underpinned by higher-than-expected retail sales numbers (actual 1.5%, forecast 0.6%) and PMI data (Services 51.1 vs forecast 51 and Manufacturing 49.6 vs forecast 46.6). The results suggest that the UK consumer is resilient, which may encourage the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged.
USDJPY
USDJPY firmed in a 152.30-153.06 range. The gains were due to a mix of Japanese fiscal plans and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Japan plans to boost defense spending to 2.0% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2026. It is also an overt ploy to curry favor with Trump, whom she meets on Monday.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded defensively in a 0.6493-0.6518 range, with gains limited by caution ahead of today’s U.S. inflation data and the Trump/Xi meeting next week.
USDMXN
USDMXN was adrift in an 18.3869-18.4184 range. Gains are limited because of expectations for lower Fed rates and a thaw in U.S./China trade animosity.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0928 vs exp. 7.1192 (Prev. 7.0918).
Shanghai Shenzhen: CSI 300 rose 1.18% to 4660.68
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
