October 28, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.3997, overnight range 1.3982-1.4006, close, 1.3990
The BoC will cut rates by 25 bps tomorrow but the central back that will have the biggest impact on USDCAD trading is the Fed, and they are expected to cut 25 bps as well.
WTI oil is trading poorly in a 59.94-61.49 range after Bloomberg reported that Opec was planning to announce another production increase of 137,000 barrels/day effective December 1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol’s comments also weighed on prices. He said he expected lower oil and gas prices.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.3970 and looking for a move above 1.4010 to extend gains to 1.4060. A move below 1.3960 targets 1.3930.
The medium-term technicals are bullish supported by the uptrend line since July and are looking for further gains to 1.4120 while prices are above 1.3920.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3970 and 1.3930. Resistance is at 1.4010 and 1.4050
Today’s Range: 1.3960-1.4030.
Tora, Tora, Tora
Tora, Tora, Tora was the code phrase to signal the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour. It was probably repeated yesterday when the Japanese wanted to appeal to Trump’s ego. The big story overnight was Trump’s visit to Japan and his effusive praise for new Prime Minister Takaichi. She knew what she was doing. She saw how the UK and US trade relationship flourished after the Brits trotted out King Chuck to greet Trump, so she had Emperor Naruhito meet Trump’s plane. It worked. Trump was so stoked he chirped, “I want to just let you know anytime you have any question, any doubt, anything you want, any favors you need, anything I can do to help Japan, we will be there. We are an ally at the strongest level.” (Take that Canada)
Waiting for the Fed
The US dollar trades with a slightly softer bias in an uneventful overnight session with traders biding their time until tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC decision. A 25 bp rate cut is universally expected followed by a somewhat dovish press conference.
Taking Stock
Asian equity traders failed to follow Wall Street’s lead and closed with losses. Japan’s Topix fell 1.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.33%, and Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.48%.
As of 5:00 AM, European indexes are trading negatively except for the UK FTSE 100 index, which is up 0.16%. The French CAC-40, Germany’s DAX and S&P 500 futures are flat, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 98.70. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 3.987% and Gold (XAUUSD) is 3924.88
EURUSD
EURUSD traded uneventfully in a 1.1644-1.1668 range. Traders are cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting and Thursday’s ECB decision. The single currency saw a little support from the improved risk tone due to rising hopes of some sort of China/US trade deal. Expectations for a dovish Fed outlook are also underpinning prices.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD dropped to 1.3301 from 1.3370 following comments by Chancellor Rachel Reeves about a £20 billion hit to public finances from lower-than-expected productivity. She admitted that the UK productivity numbers have been poor since the financial crisis and Brexit.
USDJPY
USDJPY traded lower in a 151.76-152.90 range due to mild verbal intervention. In a “pot-kettle-black” moment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—the guy helping to manage a gargantuan $3+ trillion deficit—lectured Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama about “the important role of sound monetary policy formulation and communication in anchoring inflation expectations and preventing excess exchange rate volatility.” That’s like Bernie Madoff scolding Sam Bankman-Fried for financial fraud.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded sideways in a 0.6545-0.6565 range with prices supported by downgraded odds of an RBA rate cut next week and a Fed rate cut tomorrow.
USDMXN
USDMXN chopped about in an 18.3819-18.4431 range with hope for a dovish Fed outcome tomorrow and improved global risk sentiment weighing on prices. Furthermore, President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the US has extended the trade deadline. Mexican employment data is due today.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0856 vs exp. 7.1029 (Prev. 7.0881)
Shanghai Shenzhen: CSI 300 fell 0.51% to 4691.87
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China signed an upgrade to its free-trade agreement. President Xi Jinping says the new deal creates “new opportunities to expand and enhance bilateral economic and trade cooperation.”
Vietnam
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
