November 24, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4111, overnight range 1.4091-1.4115, close 1.4103

USDCAD continues to consolidate lasts weeks gains as traders get comfortable with the currency pair above the psychological 1.4000 level. Canada’s ongoing economic woes are well-know and reflected in the price.

Even the US hillbilly Vice President, JD Vance took note, and he blamed Canada’s “immigration insanity” for the problem.  Nothing says “Sell Canada” like the following chart posted by Michael A. Arouet on X.

Prime Minister Carney has got the message and is actively tossing the Trudeau-era playbook into the shredder.  Canada “ Feminist Foreign Policy”-gone, India/Canada relations-mending, China/Canada relations-improving. Canada/Australia India trilateral technology and innovation partnership-just announced.  Climate Change-no change, still a zealot.

WTI oil prices are falling (except as the gas pumps) and traded in a 57.43-59.27 do talk of and end to the Russia/Ukraine war, which would increase oil supply and exacerbate the expected glut in 2026.

The US will be releasing a mess of stale economic reports this week.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.4090 and looking for a break above 1.4170 to extend gains to 1.4240.  A move below 1.4090 targets 1.4060.

The medium-term technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.4040 and are looking for a break of 1.4160 to target 1.4280.  The momentum indicators are elevated but not overbought.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4080 and 1.4040. Resistance is at 1.4140 and 1.4160.
Today’s Range: 1.4080-1.4160

Annual Turkey Trot

American’s are getting their dancing shoes on for the annual Turkey Trot. Millions of American’s ride trains, planes, and automobiles as they make the trek to feast with friends and relatives, bonding over a turkey feast and football. It’s also the official start to the holiday season. Companies start closing their books for the year, and traders limit exposures, preferring not to expose profits to erratic, thin holiday markets.

Nobel Peace Prize for Putin?

The White House has fully embraced Vladimir Putin’s key conditions for ending the war in Ukraine and repackaged them as Trump’s 28-point peace plan. Russia gets everything it wanted in Ukraine, including a ban on Ukraine ever joining NATO, and all sanctions on Russia disappear. In return, the U.S. would secure preferential access to Ukrainian oil, gas, rare earths, and minerals, while dangling long-term economic goodies for Russia, including Arctic resource deals. Ukraine gets nothing.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed higher except for Japan’s Topix, which finished on a flat note. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.97%, and Australia’s ASX gained 1.29%.

As of 5:30 am PT, the German DAX is up 0.76%, the FTSE 100 index has gained 0.31%, the French CAC-40 is up 0.14%, and the S&P 500 futures have risen 0.62%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 100.08, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.05%

EURUSD

EURUSD inched higher in a 1.1502-1.1542 range, with the single currency getting a bit of a lift from hopes of an end to the Russia and Ukraine war. Traders ignored the latest German Ifo survey. The Business Climate Index fell to 88.1 in November (previous 88.4) due to more pessimistic expectations.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD chopped about in a 1.3085-1.3112 range with traders sidelined ahead of Wednesday’s UK budget.

USDJPY

USDJPY is consolidating recent losses in a 156.39-156.94 range, with talk of rate hikes and FX intervention helping to cap gains. A BoJ board member warned of a December rate hike if tariffs increased the cost of imports.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is trading sideways in a 0.6443-0.6468 range with traders awaiting fresh direction due to ever-shifting odds around the December 10 FOMC decision. Prices remain underpinned by expectations that the RBA will leave rates unchanged. Across the Tasmanian Sea, the RBNZ is expected to trim its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 2.25%.

USDMXN

USDMXN is trading in an 18.4150-18.4940 band and is trading near the peak in early NY. The ebb and flow of global risk sentiment is driving the currency, although the rebound in US rate-cut odds should limit gains. Mexican inflation for the first half of November is expected to show a rise to 0.42% from 0.28%.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0847 vs exp. 7.1162 (Prev. 7.0875)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 2.44% to 4453.61.

Beijing believes that China is the only country that is rational and pragmatic. Prime Minister Li Qiang said as much when he told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, “We hope the German side will adhere to a rational and pragmatic China policy, rule out interference and pressure, focus on shared interests, and consolidate the foundation for cooperation.”

China is telling Japan to remove missiles deployed on an island 100 km from Taiwan, calling it extremely dangerous. Japan’s Defence Minister says the missiles merely reduce the odds of an attack on Japan.

And China’s Foreign Minister is obsessed with Japan. He urged Japan to correct mistakes as soon as possible and to not become obsessed.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics