November 25, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4113, overnight range 1.4102-1.4124, close 1.4107

USDCAD traders did not get the memo that the Fed December rate-cut odds surged to nearly 90% after being close to 30% just a few days ago. That’s because Fed Chair candidate and current Governor Christopher Waller said he thought a 25 bp rate cut was appropriate.

USDCAD did not get any love from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s announcement of an agreement with Alberta to support a pipeline to the West Coast. The usual band of protestors are outraged, but they will be ignored as Trump’s economic war on Canada necessitates new markets for Canada’s oil wealth

USDCAD is also supported on news that Canada and the US are not having trade talks now and are not expected to have any until closer to the renegotiation of the USMCA trade deal in the spring.

There is a lot of US economic data. ADP employment change (4-week average) fell 13,500. September PPI rose 0.3% m/m and Retail Sales rose 0.2% m/m.  November consumer confidence is due later.  FX markets largely ignored the numbers.

Note: US Thanksgiving is Thursday, and Americans are likely more focused on turkey, pumpkin pie, and football. That means poor liquidity will exaggerate price action,

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are – they are bullish while trading above 1.4090 and looking for a break above 1.4170 to extend gains to 1.4240.  A move below 1.4090 targets 1.4060. However, momentum indicators on the hourly chart suggest prices are becoming overbought.

The medium-term technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.4040 which is guarding the base of the uptrend channel (1.3970) from the end of July  and are looking for a break of 1.4160 to target 1.4300.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4080 and 1.4060. Resistance is at 1.4140 and 1.4180.
Today’s Range: 1.4080-1.4160

Hot, Cold, Hot Again.

Traders took Fed Governor (and Fed Chair candidate) Christopher Waller’s words as gospel. Mr. Waller said that the data tells him the labour market is weak, inflation continues to show relatively small effects from tariffs, and they are not a persistent source of inflation.

Then he said the magic words—“Abra Cadabra.” No, he didn’t, but he may as well have. After he said, “This reading of the data leads me, at this moment, to support a cut in the FOMC’s policy rate at our next meeting on December 9 and 10,” December rate-cut odds soared, and 10-year Treasury yields fell.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed higher except for Japan’s Topix, which fell 0.21%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.69%, and Australia’s ASX rose 0.14%.

As of 7:00 am, the FTSE 100 index has gained 0.31%, the French CAC-40 is up 0.18%, and the German DAX is flat. S&P 500 futures are down 0.19%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 100.15, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.026%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4134.42.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded sideways in a 1.1511-1.1542 band. The talk about a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine is viewed skeptically, especially after French President Macron declared it “needed improvement.” Mr. Macron framed the deal as “peace with capitulation.” German Q3 GDP was as expected. ING analysts point out that Germany has only seen two quarters of positive growth in the past three years.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD drifted higher in a 1.3096-1.3141 range before easing to 1.3126 in NY. Traders are biding their time until tomorrow’s UK Budget release. The prevailing sentiment is that the budget is not expected to be GBPUSD supportive, which suggests a very choppy trading session tomorrow.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded in a 156.14-156.98 range due to rising FX intervention fears and renewed expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate cut in December. Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had a phone call, which the PM said was the reaffirmation of the close cooperation with Japan and the US.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD drifted quietly in a 0.6449-0.6470 range and will continue to have a bearish bias unless prices move above 0.6480. Prices are underpinned by a cautious rate outlook from the RBA, contrasting with renewed expectations for a December Fed rate cut.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded in a 18.4720-18.5307 band and is at its session low in early NY, giving back some gains. Renewed hopes for a December Fed rate cut exacerbated the selling pressure. USDMXN technicals are bearish below 18.5350, with a move below 18.4500 targeting 18.3600.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0826 vs exp. 7.1056 (Prev. 7.0847))

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.95% to 4490.41

Xi Jinping and Trump talked for an hour, and the White House says the talks were “productive.” Mr. Jinping told Trump that Taiwan’s return to China is an important part of the world order. Beijing claims it was Trump who initiated the call

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics