November 27, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4045, overnight range 1.4029-1.4050, close 1.4042

USDCAD is on the defensive because of increased odds that the Fed will cut rates at the December 10 meeting. The dollar is under pressure against the major G-10 currencies and the Loonie is along for the ride.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is sure to attract the ire of Trump after the PM announced he would limit imports of steel in an attempt to boost Canadian production although the details are complicated. The government introduced tariff rate quotas in the summer which meant steel imports over a certain level would face 50% tariffs. Yesterday he lowered the threshold.

WTI oil prices are steady in a 58.29-59.96 range with traders awaiting further developments in Putin’s peace plan which the Trump administration is championing. China announced new import quotas for independent oil refiners which is expected to increase demand and underpin prices.

There are no economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.4080 and looking to break support congestion in the 1.4010-1.4040 zone to extend losses to 1.3960.  A break above 1.4080 argues for further 1.4040-1.4140 consolidation.

The medium-term technicals are bullish with prices still above the 100 day moving average (1.3884) and 200 day moving average (1.3926) with strong resistance in the 1.4140-70 area.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4030 and 1.4010. Resistance is at 1.4070 and 1.4110.
Today’s Range: 1.4020-1.4080

Greenback Sliding on Fed Rate Cut Bets

The Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate is not a sure thing, but the FedWatch odds for such a move are now 85.2%. Mind you, they have been up and down like an elevator in a busy office building. But this time is different… Nah, not really. But this time some of Fed Chair Powell’s perceived allies, like NY Fed President John Williams, are saying that a December rate cut is appropriate.

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses in a quiet overnight session but is a tad higher compared to the close in early Toronto trading.

US markets are closed today and will be operating with a skeleton crew on Friday, which means a quiet and uneventful trading session ahead.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets took their cue from Wall Street and finished with gains, albeit modest ones. Japan’s Topix rose 0.39%, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.12%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat.

As of 4:30 am PT, the German DAX is up 0.28%, the French CAC-40 is up 0.12%, and the FTSE 100 index is down 0.11%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.63, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.015%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4157.89.

EURUSD

EURUSD firmed in Asia, rising from 1.1576 to 1.1614 before sliding in Europe after Eurozone data was released. Consumer Confidence was unchanged at -14.2, while Economic Sentiment ticked up to 97 from 96.8. Services sentiment rose to 5.7 (forecast 4.4), but that news was offset by a slide in Industrial Confidence to -9.3 from -8.5. EURUSD is likely to trade in a 1.1540-1.1640 range until next week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD rallied then dropped in a 1.3210-1.3268 topsy-turvy budget day session yesterday. The budget solidified bets for a Bank of England rate cut in December, leaving the bearish outlook for Fed rates to drive FX action.

USDJPY

USDJPY firmed in a 155.72-156.49 range, with traders fixated on the BoJ’s December rate decision. Analysts are leaning toward a 25 bp rate hike. Meanwhile, Trump apparently called PM Takaichi and asked her not to antagonize China anymore. In politics, Nikkei Asia reports that Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party will regain its majority in the House of Representatives as three independents have decided to join the LDP.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD was steady in a 0.6517-0.6540 band. The gains are due to the lingering impact of higher-than-expected inflation numbers yesterday and the broad US dollar weakness from rising odds of a Fed rate cut on December 10.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways in an 18.3308-18.3605 band after falling from 18.5357 on Tuesday. Traders ignored the news that the Bank of Mexico cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 0.6% to 0.3% due to the impact of Trump’s global trade war. The bank is expected to cut its benchmark rate to 7.0% from 7.25% next month.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0779 vs exp. 7.0733 (Prev. 7.0796).)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.05% to 4515.40.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics