December 1, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.3984, overnight range 1.3955-1.3992, close 1.3979
USDCAD retreated in the wake of broad-based US dollar selling pressure with additional pressure from the jump in headline Q3 GDP numbers on Friday. The positive components in the GDP report, were offset by downward revisions. Q2 GDP was revised down to -1.8% from -1.6%, while exports were flat.
WTI oil prices rallied from 59.07 to 59.08 then dropped to 59.33 in NY. Prices were underpinned after Opec confirmed earlier reports that they would leave production quotas unchanged in Q1 2026.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3990 and looking for a decisive breach of the 1.3950-60 area to extend losses to 1.3920, which is where the 200 day moving average comes into play. Prices are oversold and a break above 1.4010 points to a retest of 1.4050.
The medium-term technicals are looking bearish after USDCAD failed to extend gains above 1.4150 area but unless support in the 1.3920 and then 1.3860 gives way, the drop is just a correction which would be confirmed by a daily close above 1.4060.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3950 and 1.3920. Resistance is at 1.4010 and 1.4050.
Today’s Range: 1.3920-1.4020/
American’s Return to Sluggish December Start
American’s have had their fill of turkey, Black Friday deals, and football and return to a risk-averse market with stocks and the greenback posting losses. Global traders were unhappy with hawkish comments by Japanese officials and sluggish China PMI numbers while hoping for an end to hostilities in Ukraine as the U.S. negotiates Putin’s peace plan.
Traders are looking ahead to today’s ISM PMI data and Wednesday’s ADP employment report, although a December Fed rate cut is fully priced in.
President Trump is reportedly talking to the Venezuela President at the same time as he announces the closure of Venezuelan airspace. Meanwhile, his attack dog (literally and figuratively) Pete Hegseth is ordering the military to “kill ’em all” when they launch missile attacks on boats in the Caribbean, despite the individuals not being charged or convicted in a U.S. court.
Taking Stock
As of 5:30 a.m., the German DAX is down 1.28%, the FTSE 100 index has fallen 0.17% and the French CAC-40 has lost 0.66%. The S&P 500 is down 0.67%, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.08, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.054%, and gold (XAUUSD) is $4,256.64
EURUSD
EURUSD added to Friday’s gains in a 1.1590–1.1652 range with hopes for a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire underpinning the single currency. Gains were capped after German Manufacturing PMI dropped to a nine-month low of 48.2 from 49.6 in October. S&P Global’s economist suggested that part of the weakness may be due to U.S. customers front-running tariffs at the beginning of the year. The EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1550 and looking for a break above 1.1670 to target 1.1760.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3205–1.3275 range with prices underpinned by UK Manufacturing PMI rising to a 14-month high of 50.2 in November, in part because of higher domestic demand. Analysts expect an even better December result because the angst around the UK budget will have passed.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped from 156.15 to 154.70 where it sits in NY trading, due to hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. He hinted about a December rate hike after he commented that the BoJ was actively collecting information on companies’ plans to raise wages. He also said, “Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policy and the U.S. economy, which we had been particularly monitoring, have significantly declined compared to a few months ago.” Bond traders were convinced, and they boosted the yield on the 2-year JGB to 1.02%, its highest level since 2008.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded sideways in a 0.6538–0.6567 range with prices supported by expectations for a Fed rate cut and the belief that the RBA will not only leave rates unchanged, policymakers may have a hawkish bias. That view was reinforced when domestic inflation rose to 3.2% y/y from 3.1%. The improved global risk sentiment is also underpinning Aussie.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded negatively in an 18.2661–18.3491 range and is near the bottom of that band in NY trading. The conviction of a Fed rate cut next week and improved global risk sentiment have fueled the selling pressure. A break below 18.2200 targets 17.900.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0759 vs exp. 7.0709 (Prev. 7.0789).
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.10% to 4576.49.
China November Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs. forecast 49.2 (Prev. 49.0), Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs forecast 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
Composite PMI 49.7 (Prev. 50.0)
RatingDog November Manufacturing PMI Final 49.9 vs. forecast 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
