December 22, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.3768, overnight range 1.3761-1.3805, close 1.3803  

USDCAD drifted lower due to broad-based US dollar weakness in holiday-thinned trading as fears of weaker employment numbers raise the odds for a faster pace of Fed cuts. Canada’s growth is expected to show a 0.3% decline in October when it is released on Tuesday. A positive result would send USDCAD toward support at 1.3720.

Canada’s Industrial Product price index rose 0.9% m/m in November (forecast 0.3%) while the Raw Materials price index numbers rose 0.3% (forecast 0.6% m/m)

WTI oil prices rose from 56.78 to 57.84 due to aggressive US actions against oil tankers shipping Venezuelan crude.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged. They are bullish while prices are above 1.3740 and looking to break above 1.3810 to target 1.3880. Failure to break above 1.3810 argues for another test of support.  

The medium-term technicals are bearish while prices are below the 100 and 200 day moving averages but for now are trapped in a 1.3740-1.3880 range.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3740 and 1.3710. Resistance is at 1.3810 and 1.3850
Todays Range 1.3740-1.3810

Geopolitics Lift Gold

Trump and Putin like to inflame global tensions through demonstrations of military might. Putin dismissed the latest Ukraine EU US peace proposal as “nothing there for Russia,” while the US Navy continues its oil tanker blockade of Venezuela. In addition, Trump has raised hackles in Copenhagen after appointing a “special envoy to Greenland,” which everyone except the White House recognizes as Denmark’s sovereign territory.

Those events, and the prospect for lower Fed rates, boosted gold to another record high, with prices rising from 4388.55 to 4420.35.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed with gains. Japan’s Topix rose 0.64%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.43%, and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.91%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are trading poorly. The German Dax is flat while the French CAC-40 is down 0.34% and the UK FTSE 100 has lost 0.44%.  S&P 500 futures are up 0.36%, the US Dollar Index is 98.47, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.167%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4409.34.

EURUSD

EURUSD climbed in a 1.1706–1.1738 range in an uneventful session. EURUSD remains underpinned by expectations for additional Fed easing while the ECB stands pat.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD rallied in a 1.3374–1.3441 range and is near the top of that band in NY. The rally occurred after Q3 Business Investment rose 2.7% (forecast 0.7%) while Q2 GDP rose 0.1% q/q as expected.

USDJPY

USDJPY consolidated Friday’s post-BoJ gains in a 157.23–157.71 range. The BoJ raised its benchmark rate to 0.75% from 0.25% on Friday but indicated they were in no hurry to raise rates further. Meanwhile, recent US data has raised the odds for a Fed rate hike and that disconnect is boosting prices. The BoJ warned that currency officials were ready to take action against “one-sided and sharp” currency moves, but the comments were ignored.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded with a mild bid in a 0.6606–0.6646 range due to a generally weaker US dollar on rising odds of another Fed rate cut. In addition, AUDUSD is supported by the perception that the RBA has a hawkish bias

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways in a 17.9838-18.0703 range and is at the bottom of the band in NY. Banxico hinted that it may pause rate cuts at its next meeting which weighed on the currency pair as MXN/US interest rate spreads continue to favour selling USDMXN.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0572 vs exp. 7.0407 (Prev. 7.0550)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.95% to 4611.62

Beijing confirmed that Exports of rare-earth magnets to EU rebounded sharply in November.

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics