January 12, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3876, overnight range 1.3868-1.3918, close 1.3915
USDCAD has enjoyed a wild ride since the beginning of December. Prices dropped from 1.4013 on December 2 to a Boxing Day low of 1.3642, albeit in thin, holiday and year-end markets. Prices then reversed course and it closed at 1.3720 to finish 2025 for an annual loss of 4.39%. All in all, it was a pretty stellar performance in the face of the Trump Tornado that roared across the country and the globe.
Friday’s US and Canadian employment reports were largely ignored. Canada added 8,200 jobs in December, but the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from 6.5%. The US data is still too dodgy to matter, due to the lingering effect of the US government shutdown.
USDCAD continues to be underpinned by “what-ifs?” in the wake of the US seizure of Venezuela’s oil resources and Trump’s plans to annex Greenland, using force if necessary. What would happen if White House advisor Stephen Miller convinced Trump to take over Canada to secure its massive treasure trove of natural resources? There would be no opposition. Canada would fall within hours of American troops landing.
WTI oil is choppy inside a 58.46-59.77 range. Trump’s seizure of Venezuelan oil and tankers carrying Venezuelan crude suggest that China may be looking for a new supplier, which may help to rebalance oil supply and demand.
There are no US or Canadian economic reports today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.3840 but upside momentum is fading and the RSI is stretched. A move above 1.3920 targets 1.3980 while a break below 1.3840 puts 1.3780 in play.
The medium-term technicals are bullish after the November downtrend line was snapped and prices are bullish above 1.3780. The uptrend will be confirmed by a sustained break above the 100day moving average at 1.3904. Longer term, unless USDCAD reclaims the 1.40–1.4050 zone, upside looks limited suggesting further consolidation ahead.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3840 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3920 and 1.3960.
Todays Range 1.3840-1.3940.
2026-Imperial America
Most US and Canadian market participants will be at their desks today. By now, the Christmas/New Year’s flu has run its course, and the kids are back in school. Tornado Trump was everywhere, wreaking havoc whenever his lips moved.
On January 3, Venezuela overtook Canada and Greenland to win the 51st State of the US sweepstakes. According to Trump, US troops arrested and extradited President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their bed and charged them with drug trafficking. Then Trump claimed Venezuelan oil as his own.
Trump has ordered the military to draw plans for the invasion of Greenland, ostensibly to secure the Northern gateway, but in reality, he wants to steal Greenland’s rare earth minerals.
On the weekend, Trump’s Justice Department lackeys issued subpoenas to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, threatening a criminal indictment for failing to follow Trump’s orders and cut interest rates. The subpoena pretended to be about Fed building renovation cost overruns.
The Trump administration is weighing military options in Iran. Trump is annoyed at his failure to get Ayatollah Khamenei to agree to US nuclear terms, so he is framing the action to stop Iranian security forces from killing civilian protestors. Khamenei sent Trump video of ICE actions in Minneapolis and Portland and said, “ditto.”
Trump’s words and deeds have fueled angst around the globe. Is it the end of NATO? Has America adopted Trump advisor Stephen Miller’s view that American military might gives the US the right to do whatever it wants?
Americans just do not care, at least the white ones. They are focused on the NFL playoffs and the Golden Globe Awards
Taking Stock
Asian equity traders ignored the latest Fed drama and closed with gains except Japan’s Topix, which was closed for a holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.44%, and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.48%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are trading mixed around flat, except for the German Dax, which is up 0.52%. S&P 500 futures are spooked by the attack on the Fed and are down 0.57%, the US Dollar Index is 98.71, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.201%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4609.74
EURUSD
EURUSD rallied in a 1.1622-1.1696 range and is just below the top in early NY. The Trump administration’s latest attack on the Fed’s independence snapped a 2026 decline from 1.1742 on January 5 to 1.1622 today. Investors fear that US monetary policy will be managed by a man who managed to bankrupt five casinos. However, EURUSD gains will be limited by fears that a US invasion of Greenland will collapse NATO.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD bounced from 1.3391 to 1.3475, where it sits in NY following broad-based US dollar selling pressure after Fed Chair Powell was subpoenaed. For today, the price action is just a knee-jerk reaction to the headlines, and GBPUSD is consolidating gains in a 1.3370-1.3570 range.
USDJPY
USDJPY traded quietly in a 157.52-158.20 range with domestic markets closed. Prices retreated from the top as traders feared it was at a level that could trigger BoJ intervention. Traders were also fretting about political uncertainty as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly contemplating calling a snap election.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD chopped about in a 0.6679-0.6713 band, with price action tracking broad US dollar sentiment. AUDUSD remains underpinned by sentiment that the RBA has a hawkish bias, supported by sticky inflation numbers.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded sideways in a 17.8919-17.9906 band, which is inside its 2026 range of 17.8631-18.0447 range. Favourable Mexican yields and bearish US dollar sentiment are weighing on prices. Banxico is expected to cut rates to 6.0-6.5% by the end of 2026, and inflation in the 3.0% range.
China
PBoC Fix: 7.0108 vs exp. 6.9849 (Prev. 7.0128)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.65% to 4789.92
China and EU close to framework for a deal in EV tariffs.
FX High, Low, Open
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics
