January 15, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3903, overnight range 1.3877-1.3914, close 1.3882

USDCAD danced around its 100-day moving average at 1.3905 but failed to extend gains, in part because WTI oil prices dropped from its recent peak. Nevertheless, USDCAD is mostly an after-thought to global FX trading and today’s Canadian Manufacturing and Wholesale Sales reports won’t change that.

Prime Minister Carney said that he signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China to strengthen energy cooperation.  He is hoping it will boost oil and gas exports without risking the wrath of Trump. Its progress but so far it is just words.

WTI oil dropped on hopes that Trump would not order a military strike on Iran. Prices fell from 61.11 to 59.15 and remain soft at 59.40 in NY.  Traders are cautious as Trump could still attack Iran.  The EIA announced US crude inventories rose by 3.39 million barrels last week.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.3840 and looking for a decisive break above 1.3920 to extend gains to 1.3960. However, the RSI is becoming overbought which suggests risk/reward favours a lower USDCAD.  A move below 1.3840 opens the door to a retest of support in the 1.3750 area.

The medium-term outlook remains bullish above 1.3840 but as long as the 100 day moving average at 1.3905 limits gains, further range trading is likely.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3840 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3920 and 1.3960.
Todays Range 1.3850-1.3920

Iran Reprieve-Venezuela, and Greenland

Trump claims that he was told the killings in Iran had stopped and that was enough to send oil prices tumbling. In addition, Trump is already selling stolen Venezuelan crude and the money is not going to Venezuelans.

Meanwhile Vice President Vance was the deciding vote (51-50) to block Senate resolution that would have forced Trump to receive Congressional approval for additional military action in Venezuela.

The US has not backed off from plans to claim Greenland via cash or invasion. Trump claims Greenland is strategically located and mineral-rich

Jobless Claims Surprise

US weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 198,000 in the week ending January 10 and last weeks number was revised 1,000 lower. The numbers as were likely skewed by year-end and other seasonal challenges but even so, the US dollar caught a bit of a bid.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed on a mixed note. Japan’s Topix climbed 0.68%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.47%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.28%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are mixed. The French CAC-40 is down 0.14%, the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.45%, and the German DAX is flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.44%, the US Dollar Index is 99.39, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.159%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4591.20

EURUSD

EURUSD recouped Asian losses, rising from 1.1626 to 1.1647 in rather subdued price action, before dropping to 1.1604 after the US data.  The single currency garnered a modicum of support after data showed that the German economy grew by 0.2% y/y in 2025. It is only the first estimate and subject to revision. However, ING analysts suggest the outlook is promising because massive German fiscal stimulus is expected to trickle into the economy this year. Elsewhere, Eurozone industrial production rose more than expected, while the EU trade surplus narrowed.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3416–1.3447 range then dropped to 1.3373 following the US weekly jobless claims data. The UK economy grew 0.3% m/m in November (forecast 0.1%), but that news was overshadowed by tepid 0.1% growth for the three months to November. UK manufacturing production and industrial production also rose more than expected.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded in a 158.23–158.81 range and is at the top of that band in NY. Price action is torn between selling pressure from Japanese politics and the risk of FX intervention, and demand from the prospect of BoJ rate hikes.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD bounced in a 0.6667–0.6702 range, and is at its session low in NY.  AUDUSD remains resilient after recent data supported the RBA’s inclination to pause its easing cycle.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded  in a 17.7806-17.8327 range and hit the top after the US jobless claims numbers, MXN/US yield differentials continue to weigh on USDMXN supported by Banxico’s cautious outlook which should limit gains.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0064 vs exp. 6.9678 (prev. 7.0120
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.20% to 4751.43

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics