January 20, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3826, overnight range 1.3815-1.3879, close 1.3872

USDCAD dropped in sympathy with widespread US dollar selling pressure after Trump’s latest antics triggered a “sell America” mentality.

Prime Minister Mark Carney may have agreed to sit on Trump’s Board of Peace, but Finance Minister Francois Champagne said Canada would not be paying the $1.0 billion fee. That will annoy Trump and Canada could face fresh tariffs which is what Trump is threatening France with, after Macron decline the invitation.

The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations failed to offer any incentives to force the BoC to change its “rates on hold for the foreseeable future” outlook.

WTI oil is near the top of its 58.73-59.98 range with profit takin occurring due to uncertainty around Trump at Davos and Greenland.

There are no US or Canadian economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish following the break below 1.3850 which sets the stage for further losses to 1.3810 than 1.3750. A move above 1.3850 negates the short-term downside pressure.

The medium-term technicals warn that the consolidation phase between the 100 day (1.3909) and 200 day (1.3839) moving averages may be ending with a prolonged move below 1.3839. A decisive move below 1.3810 targets 1.3650.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3810 and 1.3750. Resistance is at 1.3840 and 1.3870.

Today’s Range: 1.3770-1.3840

Davos Meets Trump (again)

Today marks the one-year anniversary of Trump’s return to power, a milestone he is celebrating in fitting fashion by heading to Davos for what he would gladly rechristen the Donald J. Trump World Economic Forum. The official 2026 theme is “A Spirit of Dialogue,” but the agenda has already been blown off course.
Organizers intended to focus on cooperation in a fractured global landscape, finding new engines of growth, and investing in human capital. Those topics are unlikely to survive first contact.
Trump has little appetite for earnest multilateral discussion. Instead, the spotlight will swing to him, his tariff threats, Greenland, and NATO, with Davos serving as just another stage rather than a forum.

Trump Knocks Markets for a Loop

Trump is having another temper tantrum. His planned Donald J. Trump Board of Peace, which is his alternative to the United Nations, is not receiving the reception he hoped. He sent out invitations to a host of world leaders, but many are taking a pass. French President Emmanuel Macron was one of them and, because of his rejection, Trump is threatening a 200% tariff on his wines and champagnes.

The latest bout of tariff and invasion threats has spooked global markets, raising the risk of the “Sell America” trade. The US dollar dropped across the board, global equity markets plunged, US Treasury yields rose, and gold soared. MAGA is becoming MAPA (Making America a Pariah Again).

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets extended yesterday’s losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.20%, Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.66%, and Japan’s Topix was down 0.84%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are sharply lower but off their worst levels. The German DAX is down 1.24%%, the French CAC 40 has 0.93%, and the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.93%. S&P 500 futures have fallen by 1.46%, the US Dollar Index dropped to 98.54, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.286%, and gold (XAUUSD) soared to 4726.05

EURUSD

EURUSD rallied hard, rising from 1.1633–1.1733 after triggering stop-loss buying with the break above the December 23 downtrend line at 1.1670. Traders dismissed the Trump tariff threats on French wine. EURUSD is also benefiting from demand as the ECB has a modestly hawkish bias and its rates are on hold while the Fed is still in easing mode. Prices also got a boost from better-than-expected German and Eurozone ZEW data. The German economic sentiment index gained 13.8 points to 59.6, while the EU rose 7.1 to 40.8.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded higher in a 1.3410–1.3491 range but has retreated from the peak. The UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1% and the employment numbers point to a cooling labour market. However, the data was overshadowed by the Trump chaos. The intraday GBPUSD technicals are bullish after the break above 1.3440 shattered the 2026 downtrend.

USDJPY

USDJPY was choppy in a 157.56–158.60 range and is trading at 157.74 in NY. JGB yields surged due to the government’s plan to raise taxes. Furthermore, broad US dollar weakness and safe-haven demand for yen weighed on the currency pair.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD firmed in a 0.6707–0.6748 range due to widespread US dollar weakness while getting an added lift from the surge in gold prices.

USDMXN

USDMXN tested a June 2024 low as it traded in a 17.5643-17.6425 range. Broad-based US selling pressure due to Trump’s latest tariff antics drove prices lower but support held and profit-taking occurred,

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0006 vs exp. 6.9576 (prev. 7.0064)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.33% to 4718.88

PBoC leaves 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and 5-year LPR unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. No surprise.

IMF raises 2026 GDP economic growth forecast to 4.5%, up 0.3% from its previous forecast. The growth is expected to be driven by domestic stimulus measures and lower US tariffs.

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) -One Week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview