January 30, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3535, overnight range 1.3482-1.3554, close 1.3491
USDCAD rallied on reports, (later confirmed) that Trump nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell’s replacement. It was enough for traders to book some profits after USDCAD had lost nearly 2.0% in the past week.
Canada GDP was flat in November which is still better than the -0.3% in October, but it missed the forecast of 0.1%. The results are rather stale and traders are focused on what a Kevin Warsh led Fed means for rates along with a possible US military strike in Iran.
Trump is at it again. At the end of another long-winded rant on TS (should be BS), he announced, “I am going to charge Canada a 50% tariff on any and all aircraft sold into the United States of America.” The man with the plan is demonstrating why world leaders have dismissed US tariff deals as “FAKE NEWS” and are rushing to develop or enhance trade deals with India and China.
The news was largely ignored, as Trump’s rants are now merely irritations, much like a yappy dog next door.
GM laid off 1,000 Oshawa workers beginning today, and shifted the production to Fort Wayne, Indiana, at the behest of Trump, just so American consumers can pay about $8,000 more per truck.
US data include Producer Prices (PPI)easily beat expectations with the headline number rising 0.5% m/m and PPI ex-food and energy climbing 0.7% m/m compared to the forecast of 0.2%. Chicago PMI data is released later today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish. Price remains below the short-term trend anchors and momentum is still pointed lower, but downside traction is fading after the RSI collapsed into extreme oversold territory. The break below 1.3550 exposed support near 1.3450, but follow-through selling is becoming increasingly difficult at current levels.
The medium-term technicals remain bearish. However, the RSI is deeply oversold and acting as a drag on further losses. This warns that downside progress is likely to slow and raises the risk of a corrective rebound. The mean reversion target sits at 1.3690, where the Bollinger midline and short-term moving average converge.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3480 and 1.3460. Resistance is at 1.3570 and 1.3590.
Today’s Range: 1.3470–1.3570
All Hail Fed Chair Warsh
It’s official. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is Trump’s as his nominee for Fed Chair when Powell’s term ends on May 15. For all intents and purposes, Warsh is “Trump’s man.” The WSJ claims he has been jockeying for the nomination for a long time. In addition, Warsh has aligned himself more closely with Trump’s views, such as embracing the president’s tariff policies after years as a free-trade advocate and calling last year for the Fed to cut interest rates faster.
The US dollar rallied on the news, and it is opening with gains across the board at the NY open but remains sharply lower on the week.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets closed with losses except for Japan’s Topix, which rallied 0.59% because of the weaker yen. Falling commodity prices and the dollar rebound drove Australia’s ASX 200 down 0.65%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 2.0%.
As of 5:30 am PT, the German Dax has risen by 0.81%, followed by the French CAC-40 with a gain of 0.67% and the UK FTSE 100, which is up by 0.45%. S&P 500 futures are down by 0.48%, the US Dollar Index is at 96.56, the 10-year Treasury yield is steady at 4.253%, and gold (XAUUSD) which plunged to 4941.79 from 5450.67 overnight is 532.18.
EURUSD
EURUSD retreated to 1.1895 from 1.1975 as reports of Warsh’s nomination encouraged profit-taking, but significant support in the 1.1890 area helped contain the losses. Eurozone GDP rose 0.3% q/q, unchanged from the prior quarter but a tick better than expected. German GDP rose 0.3% q/q compared to 0% previously. Traders are sitting back waiting for Trump’s Fed nomination and also looking ahead to next week’s ECB meeting on February 5.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD traded negatively in a 1.3726–1.3815 range and is sitting at 1.3762 in early NY. Trump warned that it was “very dangerous” for the UK to do business with China. In response, UK business minister Bryant said that it would be “bonkers, frankly, for the UK to ignore the presence of China on the world stage.” In reality, it is bonkers for anyone to do business with Trump, as he cannot be trusted.
USDJPY
USDJPY rallied due to soft inflation numbers. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy rose 2.0% versus a forecast of 2.2% and December’s 2.3%, which diminishes the urgency for the BoJ to raise rates. Broad US dollar demand ahead of Trump’s Fed Chair announcement provided additional support.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD gave back some of this week’s gains, falling from 0.7056 to 0.6968 before bouncing to 0.7010 in NY. Prices tracked broad US dollar sentiment. Australia’s PPI rose 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y, in line with expectations.
USDMXN
USDMXN traded choppily in a 17.2184–17.3485 band and is at 17.2767 in NY. The currency pair is underpinned by broad-based US dollar demand ahead of today’s Mexican GDP data. Prices are also getting a lift on fears that the Trump administration will expand military use against drug smugglers tied to Mexican cartels.
China
PBoC Fix: 6.9678 vs exp. 6.9459 (Prev. 6.9771)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.00% to 4706.34
Washington continues to tell the rest of the world how to live and what to do. The US Treasury released its semi-annual foreign currency review yesterday. It said, “It is important that the Chinese authorities allow the RMB exchange rate to strengthen in a timely and orderly manner in line with market pressure and macroeconomic fundamentals.”
UK PM Starmer’s trip to China is bearing fruit. The UK Chair of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) “We are looking at enhancing market connectivity between China and the UK, particularly by building on the stock connect with Shanghai and Shenzhen. Then added “In addition, we are exploring other areas of cooperation, such as asset management.”
FX open high low
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) -one week
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
