Market Commentary & News

Agility Forex Daily

February 12, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3568, overnight range 1.3563-1.3597, close 1.3578

USDCAD is bopping and weaving and hanging on to its bearish bias. Yesterday’s post-NFP rally faded quickly, and its failure to extend gains above 1.3630 reinforces its negative outlook.

Trump’s economic war on Canada suffered a minor set-back yesterday when 8 Republicans voted with Democrats to pass legislation to end tariffs on Canadian imports. It is not much different than sending “thoughts and prayers’ to someone after a trauma, because Trump would veto anything that impacts his tariff agenda.

WTI oil is in the middle of its 64.19–65.11 range. Gains were limited after the Energy Information Administration reported an 8.5-million-barrel increase in crude inventories for last week. However, prices remain supported due to Iran–US nuclear talks in the event that the man who lusts for a Nobel Peace Prize orders a military strike on Tehran.

There are no Canadian economic reports today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.3590, while momentum is neutral to soft, with the 4-hour RSI at 48.4 and turning higher but still below the 60 zone that would signal upside traction. A move above 1.3610 would ease immediate downside pressure and suggest a retest of the 1.3650–1.3660 area.

The medium-term technicals are bearish, supported by the move below the 100-day moving average at 1.3879 and the 200-day at 1.3820. Daily Bollinger Bands show price below the 10-day average at 1.3623 and closer to the lower band at 1.3454, while daily RSI at 35.8 signals downside momentum but not yet extreme oversold conditions.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3530 and 1.3490. Resistance is at 1.3590 and 1.3620.

Today’s Range: 1.3510–1.3610.

Dead Cat Bounce for Dollar

The US dollar rallied after yesterday’s nonfarm payrolls number (actual130,000, forecast 70,000) and a softer unemployment rate (actual 4.3% vs 4.4% in December), but it was unable to sustain the gains. The job market resilience suggests that the Fed will leave rates unchanged for longer.

FX traders appear to disagree. That could be because they believe that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is “Trump’s man, and that he will steer monetary policy according to Trump’s wishes. The post-NFP rally in the US dollar index (DXY) from 96.72 to 97.27 reversed quickly and the DXY settled in to a 96.77-97.07 range overnight and is at the bottom of the band in NY trading.

Weekly jobless claims data rose 227,000 (forecast 222,000 vs last week’s 231,000). The news had zero impact on FX. Tomorrow US inflation is expected to ease to 2.5% y/y from 2.7%.

Taking Stock

Asian equities closed higher. Japan’s Topix rose 0.70% as traders embrace PM Takaichi’s stimulus plans. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.32%%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.86%.

As of 7:00 am, European bourses are higher. The German Dax is up 1.35%, followed by the French CAC-40 which has gained0.66% and the UK FTSE 100 which has risen by 0.30%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.30%, the US Dollar Index is at 96.83, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.165%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 5,065.96.

EURUSD

EURUSD inched higher in a 1.1852-1.1888 range supported by the January 20 uptrend line that comes into play at 1.1800. There are no Euro area specific data points driving the currency pair. The price action is all due to shifting US dollar sentiment and the debate about US interest rates.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD faced down a barrage of economic data and traded higher in a 1.3605-1.3655 range. Traders appeared nonplussed with news that the UK economy grew just 0.1% in Q4 2025, and the FTSE 100 index hit a record high. Industrial production, manufacturing production and business investment were worse than expected but GBPUSD showed little reaction. BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breedon said that if the economy develops as expected rates could be cut in the next couple of meetings. That comment reinforced the downtrend line at 1.3750

USDJPY

USDJPY traded choppily in a 152.27-153.55 range. Traders ignored the surge in the Topix and focused on the rising risk of a BoJ rate hike which may occur to offset some of the impact of PM Takaichi’s fiscal stimulus plans.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded in a 0.7105-0.7148 range as it consolidated yesterdays gains. The currency pair found additional support after RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that they would raise rates further if inflation numbers “had a 3 in front of them,” saying it is unacceptable.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways but with a bearish bias in a 17.1583-17.2285 range with price action tracking broad US dollar sentiment. So far, USDMXN has ignored Trump’s musings about scrapping the USMCA trade agreement.

China

PBoC Fix: 6.9438 vs exp. 6.9109 (Prev. 6.9458)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.12% to 4719.58

China reduced tariffs on French dairy from provisional 21.9% to 42.7% levied in December to 7.4-11.7%.