February 20, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3688, overnight range 1.3679-1.3803, close 1.3679

USDCAD is on pace to finish the week with a gain of around 0.70% from Monday’s low. The gains are largely due to safe-haven demand for U.S. dollars because the U.S. is getting closer to attacking Iran.

USDCAD is also seeing some support after CAD/U.S. 10-year interest rate differentials widened from -78.1 on Monday to -84.6 today, making the greenback more attractive to “hot-money” investors.

Canadian shoppers kept their money in their wallets in December. Retail sales are fell 0.4% m/m (versus 1.2% in November), and retail sales ex-autos rose 0.1% compared to 1.6% in November. Raw Material Price Index rose 7.7 (0.3% in December) and Industrial Product Price Index figures climbed 2.7% m/m vs -0.9% in December.

Oil traders are nervous; WTI see-sawed in a $65.85–$67.03 range, and prices are currently $66.13 in New York. The risk of supply disruption has powered WTI to a 7.0% gain, rising from $61.77 on Tuesday to $66.13 today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3640 and are looking to break through the resistance at 1.3710 to test 1.3750. Failure to sustain gains above 1.3710 will lead to a retest of 1.3640, then 1.3580,

The medium-term technicals are bearish, with the November downtrend line intact below the 1.3800-10 zone and aiming at support in the 1.3470 zone. A topside break puts 1.4000 in play.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3710 and 1.3750.

Today’s Range: 1.3640-1.3740

Trump Leaks GDP Data

US Q4 GDP rose just 1.4%, sharply lower than the 3.0% expected and the 4.4% in Q3.  “Trump had this to say about the data: “The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns! Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES. “Two Late” Powell is the WORST!!! President.”

The issue is that he tweeted his outrage about 45 minutes PRIOR to the GDP number being released. However, his rant failed to have any impact on markets.

 Nevertheless, under the US criminal code, disclosing confidential census or economic survey information before its scheduled release, has penalties up to one year in prison and fines. Except for Trump. He is immune from prosecution.

US/Iran Tensions in Focus

Trump has given Iran a 10–15-day deadline to make a deal or “real bad things will happen.” If so, the conflict will be branded “The Donald J Trump War on Iran.The deadline isn’t real, it is just a time frame and subject to change at his whim

However, talk of a deadline calmed global markets to an extent, but since the American hounds of war are tugging at their chains, traders are not willing to take much risk.

Economic Data Overshadowed

The US dollar is finishing the week on a firm footing, having risen across the board since last Friday, but it is still below its peak from a month ago. There were plenty of economic reports released in Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK, which had little impact on FX, and that suggests a similar result with today’s US Q4 GDP, forecast at 3.0% versus 4.4% in Q2.

January inflation is on tap, with the Fed favourite Q4 Core PCE  rising 2.9% (forecast 2.8% y/y in December, but the data is stale.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets finished lower. Japan’s Topix erased most of yesterday’s gains and dropped 1.13%, while Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat. Chinese markets were closed.

As of 5:40 am, the French CAC-40 is up 0.65%, the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.45%, and the German DAX has gained 0.18%. S&P 500 futures have dropped 0.25%, the US Dollar Index is at 97.95, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.068%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 5042.73.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded defensively in a 1.1744–1.1776 range. Better-than-expected Eurozone and German Manufacturing, Composite, and Services PMI data lifted EURUSD off the bottom, but the rally quickly stalled due to US and Iran tensions. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.8, marking the first time it has crossed into expansion territory in four years. EURUSD could test 1.1570 on a break below 1.1720.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is in the middle of its 1.3435–1.3483 range as prices are weighed down by risks that the Iran-US negotiations go pear-shaped, leading to a full-scale US attack. UK Manufacturing PMI was 53.9 in January, better than February’s 51.8, while Services PMI was 53.9, a tick lower than December’s 54. GBPUSD gains are still hampered by expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 bps to 3.5% in March.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded with a modest bid in a 154.89–155.64 range. Prices were underpinned after Japanese inflation slowed to 1.5% in January from 2.1% in December. The decrease makes it harder for the BoJ to justify raising rates. The risk of higher oil prices from supply disruptions caused by Iran-US hostilities provided another layer of support.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD dropped, then popped, inside a 0.7015–0.7067 band. The low was seen after Australia’s Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI data disappointed. Australia’s Composite PMI was 52.0 in February versus 55.7 in January. Services PMI came in at 52.2 versus 56.3 in January, and Manufacturing PMI was 51.5 versus 52.3 in January.

USDMXN

USDMXN peaked at 17.2893 and dropped to 17.2217 into the NY session. The Banxico minutes from the February 5 meeting justified leaving rates unchanged due to lingering uncertainty around inflation and tariffs.

China

USDCNY Fix: Closed for Lunar New Year

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300:  Closed for Lunar New Year

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview