February 23, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3676, overnight range 1.3649-1.3700, close 1.3681
USDCAD trading is uninspired. For the time being, Canada is relatively unscathed by the latest US tariff developments as most of Canada/US trade is covered under CUSMA, which remains in force.
WTI oil prices chopped around in a $65.46–$66.47 range. The risk that the US attacks Iran is extremely high, especially if Trump takes his anger from losing the tariff decision out on Tehran. Nuclear talks are scheduled for Thursday.
FX markets will be quieter than usual today due to a nasty storm in the US. Many American traders will be shovelling snow rather than trading after a foot of snow hit NYC with blizzard warnings have impacting 41 million people in the surrounding area.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from Friday. They are bullish above 1.3640 and are looking to test 1.3740. A break below 1.3640 targets 1.3590.
The medium-term technicals are bearish, with the November downtrend line intact below the 1.3800-10 zone and aiming at support in the 1.3470 zone. A topside break puts 1.4000 in play.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3710 and 1.3750.
Today’s Range: 1.3640-1.3740
Whack-A-Mole Tariffs
The US Supreme Court soundly whacked Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to levy tariffs. They are illegal. Trump is not deterred. He turned around and slapped a 15% tariff on all imports using Section 122, which gives him the authority to impose tariffs for 150 days before he needs Congressional approval.
The Supreme Court ruling and Trump’s response throw a grenade into the basket of bilateral trade deals, trade frameworks, and memorandums of understanding on trade negotiated by the Trump administration. Will the massive US investments that Trump extorted countries into announcing still occur? Why would they?
The Trump administration is not admitting defeat. Senior officials are demanding that US trade partners honour the illegal tariff agreements. EU officials are thinking of postponing ratification of its US/EU trade deal, while India is postponing trade talks.
Fed Follies
A couple of Fed officials were chirping on Friday and on the weekend. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that the Fed can afford to be patient on rates. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that economic uncertainty continues and the Supreme Court decision exacerbated it.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets were closed in Japan and mainland China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.53% as the tariff ruling may improve China’s negotiating position. Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.61%.
As of 5: 30 am PT, European bourses are trading on a mixed note. The French CAC-40 and the UK FTSE 100 are flat while the German DAX is down by 0.52%. S&P 500 futures have dropped 0.40%, the US Dollar Index is at 97.74, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.061%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 5,152.13.
EURUSD
EURUSD is traded in a 1.1774-1.1835 range due to safe-haven demand following the global trade uncertainty after Trump’s IEEPA tariffs were struck down, then replaced with Section 122 tariffs, which are legal. The EU is demanding full clarity on trade, noting, “after all, a deal is a deal.” The German Ifo survey showed Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations improving, but the news was overshadowed by the latest Trump tariff drama.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD inched higher in a 1.3476-1.3535 range before drifting down to 1.3502 in early NY trading. Analysts are trying to make sense of the US tariff strategy. The UK negotiated a 10% tariff, which is now an illegal levy, and Trump announced a new round of tariffs of 15%. It’s a clusterfrump, but GBPUSD rallied on broad US dollar weakness.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped, then popped in a 154.00-155.05 range in thinner-than-usual trading, as Japanese markets were closed for the Emperor’s Birthday holiday. The Japanese yen benefitted from safe-haven demand after the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariffs illegal. The ruling raises questions about whether Japan will honour its pledge to invest $36 billion in America.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD bounced erratically in a 0.7056-0.7113 range. Australia’s Trade Minister said Trump’s announcement of a 15% tariff across the board puts Australia in a worse position than it was before the Supreme Court ruling.
USDMXN
USDMXN dropped to 17.1010 from 17.2267 due to general US dollar weakness and the US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs then gave back all the losses in early NY trading. Tourists in Puerto Vallarta and other tourist areas are stranded due to an all-out war between the Mexican army and the drug cartels. Mexican GDP rose 1.8% y/y in Q4, which beat the 1.6% that was expected.
China
USDCNY Fix: Closed for Lunar New Year
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Closed for Lunar New Year
FX open high low
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
