March 5, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3643, overnight range 1.3628-1.3671, close 1.3643
The Canadian dollar is shuffling higher albeit slowly and cautiously with the Loonie getting a bit of support from higher crude prices.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem adopted a “Dr Doom” persona in a speech yesterday. He said that economic uncertainty was already high and “we cannot afford to add financial instability into the mix.” He was referring to leveraged sovereign debt purchases and said that “The scale of these trades and speed at which they can unwind pose a systemic risk.” He mentioned one scenario. “Higher funding costs or reduced access can force the positions to be unwound. Leverage can build quietly and then unwind very quickly when conditions change.”
WTI oil are marching higher, rising from 75.07 to 78.07overnight, before sliding back to 77.09 in NY. The spike was due to a report from Iran, claiming to have hit a US tanker which was on fire.” Prices were also boosted by news that China suspended all fuel exports.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3670 and looking for a decisive break below 1.3620 to extend losses to 1.3580. A move above 1.3670 suggests a revisit to the 1.3730 -1.3760 area.
The medium-term technicals are bearish while trading below the 1.3800–1.3840 zone, which contains the 200-day and 100-day moving averages which argues that recent gains are just a correction. The 1.3500–1.3800 band remains intact with a break below 1.3585 putting 1.3500 in play, while a sustained move above 1.3840 would argue for a shift toward 1.3920.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3590 and 1.3550. Resistance is at 1.3660 and 1.3710.
Today’s Range: 1.3590–1.3670.
Equity Traders-“What, Me Worry?
Global equity traders are having an Alfred E Neuman moment. Submarines sinking ships in the Indian Ocean, Iran threatening to attack Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor, and the increasing risk that Trump’s Iran war sucks in neighboring nations, are merely distractions for stock markets. At least that was the situation in overnight markets. US S&P 500 futures are flat.
Trump to Senate-Over to You
Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh for Chair of the Federal Reserve and said he would take over Governor Stephen Miran’s seat, which expired as of January 31, 2026. It is not a sure thing. Republican Senator Thom Tillis will block Warsh’s nomination for as long as the Justice Department investigation into Powell and the Fed renovation project exists. “Let the Games Begin.”
War Overshadows Data
US weekly jobless claims were unchanged from last week’s 213,000 read which was revised 1000 higher. The results were close enough to expectations and justifiably ignored. Challenger Job Cuts plunged by 56% sharply lower than then January’s 105,435. Any Challenger wrote “February’s dip is a nice reprieve from the elevated job cut plans to start the year. With U.S. involvement in a growing war in Iran, the end of Q1 may bring more layoff plans as companies tighten belts amid uncertainty and higher costs.”
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets partially recouped Tuesday’s losses, with Japan’s Topix rising 1.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 0.26%, and Australia’s ASX climbing 0.44%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses have given up earlier gains and are sinking. The German DAX is down 0.22%, the French CAC 40 has lost 0.31%, and the UK FTSE 100 has dropped 0.27%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.24%, DXY is 99.01, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.14%, and gold (XAUUSD) is 5,135.35.
EURUSD
EURUSD traded in a 1.1582-1.1648 range, hitting the peak just before NY started, then drifting to 1.1612. Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1% m/m in January compared to the forecast for a gain of 3.0%. Middle East hostilities did not impress ECB Governor Francois Villeroy. He said, “I don’t see any reason today why we at the ECB should raise our interest rates. We’ll see meeting after meeting, but today I don’t see any reason.” He warned that a prolonged war could drive up inflation. His comments were echoed by Governor Olli Rehn and Bundesbank President Nagel.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD danced around in a 1.3306-1.3387 range, with prices underpinned by rising Gilt yields, which rose to 4.4%. Bond traders fretted about higher oil prices and the war in Iran. GBPUSD has garnered additional support from downgraded expectations that the BoE will cut rates this month.
USDJPY
USDJPY is at the top of its 156.45-157.38 range due to higher US Treasury yields and concerns about the economic impact because of higher oil prices.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD is in the middle of its 0.7011-0.7090 range. The currency continues to consolidate this week’s losses stemming from US dollar safe-haven demand. Australia’s trade surplus shrank to AUD 2.6 million from AUD 3.37 million, which weighed on sentiment.
USDMXN
USDMXN is trading sideways in a 17.5685-17.7075 band with price action mirroring US dollar sentiment. Consumer confidence rose from 44.3 to 44.5.
China
USDCNY Fix: USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9007 (Prev. 6.9124)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.98% to 4,647.69
China forecasts slower growth in 2026, pegging GDP target between 4.5-5.0% and inflation at 2.0%. Beijing also announced it would issue around CNY800 billion of new policy financing tools. (about $115.6 billion).
FX open high low
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
