March 23, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3748, overnight range 1.3685-1.3753, close 1.3725

USDCAD plunged in early NY trading after Trump backed off his threat to “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST.”

Asian and European markets rushed to buy US dollar and sell stocks.  Then at 7:05 am. the TACO trade paid off. Trump tweeted:

“I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

USDCAD dropped from its overnight peak to 1.3685 on the news but has since rallied to 1.3736 as of 5:30 am PT.  Traders and analysts are wondering, “if the US and Israel have killed all the senior leadership, who is Trump talking to?  Furthermore, the tweet did not say anything about halting all US attacks, just those aimed at power infrastructure.

WTI oil prices climbed to 101.66 after Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline (It ends at 7:15 pm tonight) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Then prices plunged to 84.59 after Trump’s 5-day delay. We’ve heard from Trump, but the Iranian’s have not said anything, yet and WTI has reversed course again an is trading at 99.58/b as of 5:30 am PT.

Trump and Iran will keep traders on edge as optimists battle with pessimists.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged.  They are bullish above 1.3690, with the and looking for a break above 1.3760 for a test of resistance at 1.3790.  A move below 1.3690 suggests further 1.3640-1.3760 consolidation

The medium-term USDCAD technicals are also unchanged.  They are bullish if prices can and expect that a break above 1.3760 would extend gains to 1.3820.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3700 and 1.3660. Resistance is at 1.3760 and 1.3790.

Today’s Range: 1.3690–1.3790

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Taking Stock

Asian equity indices are drowning in a sea of red ink due to the rise in energy prices. Japan’s Topix plummeted by 3.41%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped by 3.54%. Australia’s ASX fell 0.74%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses have flipped from deeply negative to positive in the wake of Trump’s tweet. The German DAX flipped from down 1.97% to up 1.03%. The French CAC 40 has gained 0.85% after being down 1.85%. The UK FTSE 100 is the laggard. It is down-0.40% which is still better than the – 2.26% earlier.  S&P 500 futures are 1.64%, off their best levels, the 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.38% after dropping from its overnight peak of 4.46% to 4.302%.  The DXY is 99.46. and Gold (XAUUSD) bounced from 4099.55 to 4405.55.

EURUSD

EURUSD soared to 1.1618 following Trump’s tweet after trading in a 1.1488–1.1565 range. ECB officials fear rising inflation from higher energy costs, and recent comments by some officials suggest rate hikes are in the cards. Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf hinted at the possibility of an April rate hike. His comments were echoed by his colleague Joachim Nagel.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD dropped from 1.3344 to 1.3270, then rallied to 1.3334 post-Trump tweet. KPMG warned that Trump’s war with Iran and the subsequent spike in energy prices threatened to slash UK GDP growth to just 0.7% this year and lift inflation. The news spurred UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to chair an emergency economic meeting with his finance minister and the Bank of England Governor. The FTSE 100 index has now fallen into correction territory after dropping 1.57% so far today and 8.5% over the past month.

USDJPY

USDJPY rebounded in a 159.02–159.66 range, then fell to 158.26. The overnight gains were due to free-falling domestic equity markets and rising oil prices. Trading was choppy after reports Japan was seeking a unilateral deal with Iran for its ships, which were later denied.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded poorly in a 0.6946–0.7024 range overnight and is at its session low in early NY. The currency is being pressured by widespread safe-haven demand for US dollars due to uncertainty around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed’s somewhat hawkish shift, and plunging stock markets.

USDMXN

USDMXN climbed in a 17.9110–18.0316 range and is near the top of the band in early NY. Increased risk aversion after Trump issued a deadline to Iran has fueled the gains. Mexican retail sales and inflation data are due this week, ahead of Thursday’s Banxico meeting. Analysts are divided on whether rates will be cut or left unchanged.

China

USDCNY Fix: 6.9041 vs exp. 6.8928 (prev. 6.8898)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 3.26% to 4,418.00
PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank would “continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy.”

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview