March 26, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3827, overnight range 1.3805-1.3849, close 1.3813
USDCAD is tracking broad US dollar movements and the greenback is bid. Traders are risk averse and fixated on Middle East hostilities and its impact on crude and the Canadian dollar just goes along for the ride.
WTI oil trickled higher overnight, rising from 90.73 to 94.10 before dropping back to 93.35 in NY. Prices remain elevated due to the mixed messages from Washington and Tehran on the state of peace negotiations, the backlog of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing missile strikes in the Middle East.
Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, is speaking to th Brandon Chamber of Commerce about economic developments, monetary policy and affordability
The US weekly jobless claims rose 5,000 to 210,000, as expected and the results had no impact on markets. There are no top tier economic reports from Canada today
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3760 and looking for a break above 1.3850 to target 1.3890. However, momentum indicators suggest USDCAD is overbought. A move below 1.3800 targets 1.3760.
The medium-term USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3650 but momentum indicators are screaming “overbought” as RSI and Bollinger bands are at extreme levels. Prices are above both the 100-day moving average at 1.3808 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3816, but so, far the rally has stalled. A sustained break above 1.3850 would target 1.4000 while a failure would keep the broader 1.3550–1.3850 range intact.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3790 and 1.3760. Resistance is at 1.3850 and 1.3890.
Today’s Range: 1.3760-1.3850
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
Who Do You Believe?
Global markets are dealing with a barrage of contradictory messages around the war in Iraq. The White House insists that peace talks are happening and that Trump has told associates in recent days he wants to avoid a protracted war. Two days ago, Trump tweeted about Iran, saying “very good and productive talks regarding a total resolution of our hostilities.” Yesterday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt insisted that negotiations were ongoing and added “President Trump does not bluff, and he is prepared to unleash hell.”
Iran admitted that “messages have been exchanged” then taunted America by pointing out that the US shift in tone, away from unconditional surrender, amounted to an acknowledgement of failure.
This morning a frustrated-sounding Trump tweeted “ Iran better get serious before its too late!”
Who is telling the truth?
Global market price action suggests traders are not buying what the White House is selling. Oil prices, the US dollar, and Treasury yields are higher while global equity indexes are in negative territory.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indices are down. Japan’s Topix fell 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.89% and Australia’s ASX is flat
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are falling sharply. The German DAX is down 1.40%, the UK FTSE 100, has lost 1.26% and the French CAC 40 is down 0.84%. S&P 500 futures have fallen 0.76%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.382%, the DXY is 99.84, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 44441.29.
EURUSD
EURUSD drifted in a 1.1523-1.1572 range with the uncertainty around the US/Iran war and the impact of higher oil prices weighing on prices. German Gfk consumer confidence fell to -28 from -24.8 because of the Middle East hostilities.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD inched lower in a 1.3323-1.3371 range before rising to 1.3357 in early NY. Prices were on the defensive after the British Retail Council (BRC) reported that consumer expectations plunged to -53 in March from -30 in February. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Consumer confidence collapsed as the Middle East conflict raised the prospect of higher inflation in the months ahead.”
USDJPY
USDJPY is at the top of its 159.29-159.70 range due to broad US dollar strength and firmer US Treasury yields. Japanese authorities have decided that any long-term “save-the-planet” climate change goals take a back seat to energy shortage risks and removed restrictions from coal plants.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD traded lower in a 0.696-0.6957 range. The currency is still seeing a bit of pressure from yesterday’s news that inflation was a tad lower than expected. The result may allow the RBA to pause raising rates.
USDMXN
USDMXN was uneventful in a 17.7616-17.8655 range with the focus on today’s Banxico monetary policy meeting. Rates are expected to be left unchanged.
China
USDCNY Fix: 6.9056 vs exp. 6.9108 (Prev. 6.8911)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 dropped 1.32% to 4,477.54
Trump tweeted that he is meeting with Xi Jinping in China May 14-16
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
