April 6, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3920, overnight range 1.3916-1.3948, Close: Thurs. 1.3922 Fri. 1.3946

USDCAD is trading with a slight negative bias due to another jump in oil prices and a Reuters report suggesting Iran and the US are reviewing a peace plan/ceasefire. The news seems to have helped to offset Trump’s “unhinged” rant which threatened massive Iranian infrastructure destruction if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened in 48 hours-That’s tomorrow.

The Iran war has shunted economic data aside and today’s widespread Easter Monday market closures should limit USDCAD price action.

There are no Canadian economic reports today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from Thursday. They are bullish above 1.3870, with upside momentum consolidating near the high. A break above 1.3950 targets 1.4000, while a move below 1.3870 opens the door to 1.3810.

The medium-term USDCAD technicals are unchanged.  They are bullish above 1.3810, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3870 and 1.3810. Resistance is at 1.3950 and 1.3990.
Todays range 1.3850-1.3950.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Thin Holiday Market Trading

It’s Easter Monday and many major markets are closed, including Australia, New Zealand, China, most of the European Union, Scandinavian countries, and the United Kingdom. That means global markets have not really reacted to Trump’s latest tweet.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Some US politicians have described it as “deranged,” “unhinged,” as well as “dangerous and unbalanced.”

The greenback retreated in thin trading after Reuters reported that the US and Iran had “received the framework of a plan to end the conflict.”

Oil traders reacted and lifted WTI from 108.95 to 115.37, but it has since retraced the move in extremely thin markets. OPEC announced a roughly 200,000 barrel/day increase in production quotas beginning May 1. That just means there could be another 200,000 b/d that can get through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s War Sidelines Data

Traders largely ignored Friday’s release of the March nonfarm payrolls report. The US added a whopping 178,000 new jobs, easily beating the consensus forecast for a 60,000 gain and fully erasing the February loss of 133,000 jobs. February’s data was skewed by weather and a health care workers strike. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%.

The market reaction was underwhelming because a) only US traders were working b) the numbers are overshadowed by the Iran war c) the numbers reinforce the Fed’s “unchanged” monetary policy stance.

Today’s ISM Services PMI data (forecast 55, previous 56.1) will suffer the same fate as the focus is on Trump’s Tuesday deadline.

Taking Stock

Asian equities were mainly closed except for Japan’s Topix, which closed unchanged.

European markets are closed. S&P 500 futures are up 0.22%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.352%, the DXY is 99.90, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,688.90.

EURUSD

EURUSD traded quietly in a 1.1505-1.1569 range since Friday and is at 1.1550 in NY. Flows are extremely light due to holidays. The technical bias is negative. EU financial markets were closed.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD firmed in a 1.3179-1.3260 range due to hopes for a ceasefire in Iran after the Reuters report. The UK was closed.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded in a 159.31-159.82 range. The BOJ warned that surging oil costs may hurt the economy, which suggests the barrier to higher interest rates is rising.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD rose in a 0.6877-0.6937 range due to modestly improved risk sentiment because of hopes for a US/Iran ceasefire. Australia was on holiday today.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded in a 17.7682-17.9243 range, with prices off the peak because of improved risk sentiment. Mexican markets are closed today.

China

USDCNY Fix:  Friday 6.8829 (Prev. 6.880) no fix today

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 closed.