April 13, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3844, overnight range 1.3835-1.3878, close 1.3841

USDCAD peaked in Asia then traded softer into the New York opening.  Prices spiked in the wake of the failure of the US/Iran talks in Pakistan, followed by Trump’s tweet announcing a US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI oil traders are a tad less confident that oil shipments will ramp up to pre-war levels any time soon. WTI has spiked 7.71%, since Friday’s close, rising from 96.87 to 104.19 in NY as of 5:30 am PT.

Global markets are risk averse market, although some more than others. European stocks and S&P 500 futures have dropped sharply, gold prices climbed and the US dollar opened higher across the board.

Elsewhere It is IMF week and many central bankers will be offering their opinions on the state of their economies beginning tomorrow. They will likely be preaching patience until the Iran crisis is resolved.

There are no top tier US or Canadian economic reports today. The 10:00 am US blockade deadline is the focus.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3880 and looking for a break below 1.3810 to target 1.3770.  A break above 1.3880 targets 1.3920 while a move above 1.3810 puts 1.3760 in play. The RSI is turning higher from mid-range levels, suggesting downside momentum has faded and a consolidation phase is underway.

The medium-term USDCAD outlook is neutral following repeated failures ahead of the 1.4000 area and the recent pullback from the upper Bollinger Band. The downside is supported by the 100 and 200-day moving averages at 1.3817 and 1.3820. A decisive break below 1.3790 targets 1.3620. while resistance in the 1.3900–1.4000 zone should cap rallies.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3810 and 1.3760. Resistance is at 1.3880 and 1.3910.
Todays range 1.3770-1.3870

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Blockheads Blockade

Trump’s hillbilly Vice President tried to dictate peace terms to Iran, and it failed miserably. Trump became incensed that Iran dared to defy him so he announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz beginning this morning at 7:00 am PT.

Trump tweeted that Vance’s meeting went well, then went on to say, “So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”

“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”

So, in a nutshell, Trump is blockading the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from blockading it.

Traders expect that TACO Man will be making an appearance shortly.

Taking Stock

Asian equities closed negatively. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.39%, Japan’s Topix fell 0.45%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.90%.

As of 5:30 am PT am, European markets are sliding. The German DAX is down 1.17 %, the French CAC 40 has lost 1.00%, and the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.49%. S&P 500 futures have lost 0.64%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.339%, the DXY is 99.00, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4709.56.

EURUSD

EURUSD trading in a 1.1664-1.1700 range after gapping down from Friday’s 1.1733 NY close following the news of the failed peace talks and the pending Strait of Hormuz blockade. Prices may have found a bit of support on the news that Trump’s pal Vitor Orban lost the Hungary election to a more moderate Peter Magyar. EURUSD remains bid above 1.1530.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD gapped lower at the Asia open and then drifted with a small bid in a 1.3381-1.3434 range due to the US actions in Iran. Traders are pointing to the fact that neither Iran nor the Americans have renewed missile and drone attacks as evidence that the ceasefire may still hold.

USDJPY

USDJPY spiked higher, rising from 159.25 at Friday’s close to 159.85 before easing to 159.70 in NY. The spike in oil prices and broad US dollar demand fueled the gains.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD dropped, then popped in a 0.6990-0.7059 range after initial risk aversion from the failed US and Iran talks faded.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded in a 17.3025-17.4433 range. The March downtrend remains intact, and Mexico continues to attract safe haven flows due to its high interest rates and distance from the Middle East.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8657 vs exp. 6.8395 (Prev. 6.8654)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.21% to 4,646.16

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview