April 21, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3662 overnight range 1.3638-1.3664, close 1.3646

USDCAD crawled higher in an uneventful overnight session with attention focused on Islamabad peace talks and Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination hearing today. Traders expect that the US and Iran war will wind down in some shape or form in the coming days and are looking ahead to the FOMC interest rate outlook.

Jerome Powell’s last official day as Fed Chair is May 15 but he said he would remain in the post until his successor is named. Rep Thom Tillis vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until Trump’s Justice Department probe into Powell and the Fed is done.

WTI oil traded in a 85.67-87.49 range. The short term technicals are bearish while prices are below 90.00/b and looking for a retest of support at 80.00.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3690 and looking for a move below 1.3630 to extend losses to 1.3590. A break above 1.3690 risks a retest of 1.3750.

The medium-term USDCAD are bearish with the downtrend from the beginning of April guiding prices lower in a 1.3620-1.3720 range.  The price has broken decisively below both the 100 and 200 SMMAs on the daily chart, which are clustered near 1.3810, reinforcing that level as a significant barrier to any recovery. The daily RSI has collapsed to 18, one of the most oversold readings in the past year which suggests that the near-term downside is susceptible to a corrective bounce.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3630 and 1.3590. Resistance is at 1.3690 and 1.3720. Today’s range: 1.3590-1.3680.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Americans Are Still shopping

US headline and core retail sales beat handily beat forecasts. Headline Retails sales rose 1.7% in March (forecast 1.4%), while retail sales ex autos, rose 1.9% (forecast1.4% y/y). The data shows that the US economy is rather resilient and is further evidence against cutting interest rates.

Ceasefire and Confirmation

The US dollar is scratching out small gains ahead of ceasefire talks in Islamabad that, at this point, still include negotiators from Iran. Trump is eager to declare victory. Yesterday, he tweeted that “I’m winning a war. Things are going very well.” Then he went on to claim that Iran’s navy has been wiped out, their air force has gone onto darker runways, and that they have no anti-missile or anti-airplane equipment. He said the BLOCKADE is absolutely destroying Iran. This morning, he tweeted about the “complete and total obliteration of nuclear sites in Iran.”

So, why is he begging Iran to return to the negotiating table? How is Iran able to block the Strait of Hormuz without a navy and missiles?

Markets are betting that a deal will be reached, allowing Trump to declare victory even though Iran will still control the Strait, the IRGC will still run the country, the global oil supply chain is in shambles, and inflation is rising. Nice win, Donnie.

Kevin Warsh has his confirmation hearing for Fed Chair today, starting at 10:00 am. Rep. Thom Tillis has vowed to block the confirmation until Trump’s Justice attack on Powell and the Fed is over.

US headline retail sales, and retail sales ex autos, are expected to have risen 1.4% y/y in March.

Taking Stock

Asian equities closed mixed. Japan’s Topix fell 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.48%, while Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat.

As of 5:40 AM PT, the German DAX has gained 0.35%, and the French CAC 40 and the UK FTSE 100 are down 0.25%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.36%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.264%, the DXY is 98.24, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,781.59.

EURUSD

EURUSD drifted lower in a 1.1757-1.1791 range. German and euro zone ZEW surveys disappointed. ZEW President Achim Wambach said, “Economic expectations are slipping into negative territory. The economic consequences of the Iran war for the German economy go far beyond price increases: Businesses are concerned about long-term shortages of energy supply, and this discourages investment and weakens the effect of government stimuli.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the range of possible outcomes for the euro area economy is wider than it was during the Russia-Ukraine war.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded defensively in a 1.3483-1.3540 range as traders faded news that the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% from 5.2%. Analysts dismissed the data, suggesting that the drop was due to reduced economic activity. GBPUSD is also being pressured by ongoing political drama and concerns that PM Starmer could get replaced.

USDJPY

USDJPY firmed in a 158.74-159.26 range, underpinned by broad US dollar demand, firm US Treasury yields, and greatly reduced odds for a BoJ rate hike this month. Japanese lawmakers voted to remove restrictions on exports of defensive weapons. Let the arms race begin.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD trickled lower in a 0.7144-0.7183 range on the back of AUDNZD selling pressure after higher-than-expected New Zealand inflation numbers fueled RBNZ rate hike concerns.

USDMXN

USDMXN traded sideways in a 17.2626-17.3371 range. US Trade Rep Jameson Greer is holding bilateral trade talks with Mexico. Yesterday, he reportedly told auto and steel company executives that auto and steel tariffs are here to stay.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8594 vs exp. 6.8112 (Prev. 6.8648

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.61% to 4,757.44

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview