April 29, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3693, overnight range 1.3672-1.3693, close 1.3682

USDCAD inched higher in response to broad-based US dollar demand after the Wall Street Journal reported Trump told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports. Trump also claimed that Iran can’t get its act together. Ho-hum.

WTI oil traded in a 98.43-103.80 range and are sitting at 103.26 in NY trading.  WTI has a bullish bias while trading above 97.00 with a move above 104.00 suggesting further gains to 109.10. However, news the UAE quit Opec opens the door to hopes for increased supply as its oil shipments can bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

The Governments Spring Economic Update delivered lots of promises, few details and was ignored by USDCAD traders. For now the Loonie is at the mercy of sentiment around oil and Trump’s Iran war with the USMCA renegotiation a lingering negative.

The Bank of Canada will leave rates unchanged, remind investors that they are keeping a close eye on data and not provide much in the way of guidance.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3650 and looking for a decisive break above 1.3700 to extend gains toward 1.3740. A move below 1.3650 targets 1.3620 then 1.3580. The 4-hour RSI at 74.79 is  approaching overbought flagging potential exhaustion while ATR has compressed to 0.00188, suggesting a coiling market ahead of a directional move.

The longer term USDCAD technicals are bearish but the downtrend line from the April 6 high at 1.3700 is being challenged. A topside break risks a retest of 1.3780. Failure to sustain gains above 1.3700 argues for a retest of support in the 1.3590 area.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3700 and 1.3740. Today’s range: 1.3640-1.3740.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Swan Song

Today is likely Jerome Powell’s last day presiding over the FOMC press conference as Kevin Warsh is expected to become Fed Chair by May 15. The Fed is universally expected to leave rates on hold. Fed officials, except for Trump loyalists, appear to have shifted their focus from a weakening labour market to risks for higher inflation, which points to a hawkish tone to the Fed statement. Powell will certainly be asked if he plans to remain as a governor once his term as Chair ends. Traditionally, the Fed chair leaves, but Powell could exact a modicum of revenge for Trump’s hostility and hint at fulfilling his term as governor.

Data Dump

The US February Durable Goods orders rose 0.8% (forecast 0.4$, previous 1.2%) while Core orders rose 0.9% compared to 1.2% previously. March Building Permits rose 10.9% (previous -4.7%) while housing starts fell 0.3%. Fx markets did not react to the news.

Taking Stock

Asian equities were mixed. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.27% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.68%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

As of 7:15 am, European bourses are in the red, led by a 0.77% drop in the UK FTSE 100. The French CAC 40 has lost 0.51%, and the German DAX is down 0.12%. S&P 500 futures are flat, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.356%, the DXY is 98.68, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,568.33.

EURUSD | Range: 1.1694-1.1721

EURUSD traded quietly in a narrow band. Eurozone Economic Sentiment dropped from 96.2 to 93 while Business Climate worsened slightly and Consumer Confidence was unchanged. German HICP inflation data showed a 2.9% y/y increase (forecast 3.0%, previous 2.7%) but the news had little impact on trading ahead of Thrusday’s ECB meeting.

GBPUSD | Range: 1.3495-1.3528

GBPUSD traded quietly with a modestly negative bias, with the surge in oil prices weighing on the currency. Traders are awaiting today’s FOMC meeting and tomorrow’s BoE policy meeting.

USDJPY | Range: 159.51-159.84

USDJPY remains bid, supported by rising oil prices and the BoJ decision to leave rates unchanged. Short-yen positions are at a two-year peak, with traders seemingly daring the BoJ to intervene, especially since Trump’s Iran war makes for an unstable economic situation.

AUDUSD | Range: 0.7149-0.7190

AUDUSD was choppy due to higher-than-expected inflation and a surge in crude oil prices. Headline CPI rose 4.6% y/y in March compared to 3.7% in February. The result makes a good argument for the RBA to raise rates next week. However, the jump in oil prices and the potential negative impact of the increase on global growth overshadowed the inflation numbers.

USDMXN | Range: 17.3657-17.4160

USDMXN traded quietly despite rising oil prices, which accelerated after Trump’s threat to continue blockading Iranian ports.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8608 (Prev. 6.8589)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.10% to 4,810.35

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview