May 11, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3671, overnight range 1.3667-1.3695, close 1.3678

USDCAD took a beating on Friday. The US NFP data was better than expected while Canada’s job picture was worse than forecast.  Canada shed 17,700 jobs in April against a consensus forecast for a gain of 15,000, pushing the unemployment rate up 0.2 points to 6.9%.

Prime Minister Mark Carney reminded Canadians of the new world trade order and said,  “as the U.S. changes dramatically its policies, and that’s the right of the United States, as it changes those policies, many of our former strengths have become our vulnerabilities.” It sounds like he is prepping Canadian’s for rather acrimonious trade talks going forward.

WTI oil jumped to 100.35 in Asia from 96.35, before drifting back to 97.70 in NY. Trump’s total rejection of Iran’s counter proposal to end hostilities raised fears of renewed fighting and a lengthier closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

There are no notable Canada or US economic reports today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday technicals are bearish after retreating from Friday’s peak and while they are below1.3720 and break below 1.3650 will extend losses toward 1.3590.  A topside break above 1.3720 targets 1.3760.

The medium-term downtrend from April’s highs remains intact while price stays below 1.3720. A decisive close through that level negates the trend and opens a run toward 1.3780. If it holds, expect continued range trading between 1.3520 and 1.3720.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3630 and 1.3590. Resistance is at 1.3702 and 1.3720. Today’s range: 1.3630-1.3710

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”

The above sentence was traders needed to see (hear) to drive oil prices and the US dollar higher and inject caution into equity markets. Trump appeared to be unhappy with Iran’s counter proposal to the end the war because he use capital letters.

The phrase could also be attributed to his  544 word rant on his TruthSocial account lamenting the fact that because of the Supreme Court ruling  that his tarrifs  were illegal, and now America has to refund the money collected. 

Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs and Trumps war on Iran is driving inflation higher and US consumer confidence to an all time low as per Friday’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped to a record 48.2, from 49.8 in April.

China’s Exports Soared

Trade will be at the top of the agenda whne Trump meetins with Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday. China’s trade surplus rebounded from $51.23 billion in March to $84.82 billion in april with exports rising 14.1% y/y.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indexes ended quietly. Japan’s Topix rose 0.30%, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.49% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat.

As of 5:20 am PT, the UK FTSE 100  is flat while the German DAX is down 0.45% and the French CAC 40 has lost 1.14%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.12%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.395%, the DXY is 97.97, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,669.85.

EURUSD | Range: 1.1748-1.1782

EURUSD continues to face headwinds after Trump set a July 4 deadline for the EU to ratify the Turnberry trade agreement, threatening “much higher” tariffs if Brussels fails to comply. Trade negotiators met again on May 10 for the latest round of talks, with EU Parliament negotiators noting “good progress” on cutting EU levies to zero, Some EU officials are increasingly vocal about the durability of any deal with Trump, given that commitments made at one press conference tend to get relitigated at the next.

GBPUSD | Range: 1.3557-1.3615

Sterling dropped then popped at the Asia open due to fears about the US ending its Iran ceasefire, which so far proved to be unfounded. Prime Minister Starmer is hitching his future to resetting the UK and EU relationship in the face of some of his backbenchers calling for his resignation.  

USDJPY | Range: 156.56-157.18

USDJPY traders have a lot to deal with including BoJ FX intervention, the US/Iran war driving oil prices higher and the timing of the next BoJ rate hike. This week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent injects himself into the mix.  Traders are hoping that Bessent will endore FX intervention and by adding the spectre of US involvement may lead to a more painful result for speculators.

AUDUSD | Range: 0.7239-0.7248

AUDUSD wobbled at the Asia open but regained its footing and remains comfortably above the psycologically important, 0.7200 level. The rate differential story is underpinng prices as the Fed is on hold and the RBA just hiked.  

USDMXN | Range: 17.1825-17.2525

USDMXN spiked following Banxico’s well-telegraphed 25-basis-point rate cut last week then reversed the move as the dust settled. The currency pair is consolidating last weeks losses and remains in a modest downtrend while trading below 17.2550.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8467 vs exp. 6.7988 (prev. 6.8502).

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.64% to 4,951.84

China April trade surplus $84.82 billion, forecast $83.3b, previous $51.13b. April CPI 2.8% y/y v (forecast 1.5%, previous 0.5%).

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview