Agility Forex Daily
May 12, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3711, overnight range 1.3672-1.3712, close 1.3680
USDCAD climbed on the back of renewed “risk-off” sentiment after Trump claimed that the US and Iran ceasefire was on life support. Topside gains appear to be hampered by the belief that the BoC could hike rates in 2026 when last Friday’s employment report and other data highlight a weak and struggling economy.
The BoC Q1 Market Participants Survey, released yesterday, showed 28 financial market participants (dealers and banks) believe that geopolitics and weak domestic growth are the biggest threats to the Canadian economy. The majority believe that if trade risks abated, it would be a boost to the economy.
WTI oil prices surged from 94.43 yesterday to 102.03 today and they are currently probing the top. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s counter proposals fueled the gains.
The Canadian economic calendar is empty.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3630 which is the bottom of the uptrend channel on a 4-hour chart. Gains may be capped in the 1.3720-40 area due to resistance from the channel top and a series of previous tops back to April 17.
The medium term technicals are bullish inside the 1.3630-1.3740 range but warn that a failure to break above 1.3740 it sets up another test of 1.3630, which if broken puts 1.3510 in play.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3670 and 1.3630. Resistance is at 1.3720 and 1.3740. Today’s range: 1.3670-1.3770.
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
Iran and US Ceasefire in Jeopardy
Trump said that the US/iran ceasefire was on life support after he couldn’t be bothered to finish reading Irans counter proposals to his demands. Iran’s obstinance resulted in the Pentagon issuing a veiled threat to the IRGC by releasing a photo of a US Navy nuclear armed submarine, parked in Gibralter. That is just what the world needs; a sycophantic US administration eager to stroke an unhinged Trump’s ego and allowing him to enter the history books as the first president since Harry Truman to nuke a foreign power.
US Inflation in Focus
April core inflation was hotter than expected rising to 2.8% compared to 2.6% in March while headline CPI rose to 3.7% y/y from 3.3% in March with Trump’s Iran war exacerbating the rise. The level justifies the Fed remaining on hold.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed with Japan’s Topix rising 0.83% while Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.36% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.22%.
As of 5:30 am PT, the German DAX is down 1.03%, the French CAC 40 has lost 0.94% and the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.33%. S&P 500 futures have fallen by 0.38%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.432%, the DXY is 98.25, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,692.79.
EURUSD | Range: 1.1735-1.1788
EURUSD traded steadily lower overnight due to concerns that Iran and US hositilities will renew and may include US ground action. The German ZEW surveys showed that the current situation had deteriroated to -77.8 from -73.7,, while economic sentiment in Germany and the eurozone improved, but remained in negative territory. Anaylsts point out that weak industrial production, rising energy prices, and inflation above 2% continue to weigh on the economy.
GBPUSD | Range: 1.3503-1.3618
GBPUSD was the worst performing G-10 currency against the US dollar due to domestic and geopolitical issues. The rise in oil prices because of elevated concnerns of renewed US and Iran hositilites weighed on prices but it was Prime Minister Keir Starmers job security which helped to accelerate losses. Starmers Labour Party performed poorly in recent regional elections and his ministers are calling for his head. Starmer says he won’t resign.
USDJPY | Range: 156.79-157.75
USDJPY rallied steadily on the back of surging oil prices and broad-based US dollar strength. US Treasury Secretary Bessent flew to Japan to tell the Prime Minister and BoJ officials how wonderful they were, He agreed with Japan’s Finance Ministry comments that excessive volatility in yen was undersirable, raising the prospect of joint intervention.
AUDUSD | Range: 0.7209-0.7253
AUDUSD retreated from yesterday’s peak because of ssouring global risk sentiment which sparked US dollar demand across the board. The RBA’s recent rate hike and a somewhat hawkish monetary policy outlook helped to limit the downside. Softer than expected NBA business confidence data for April didn’t help sentiment.
USDMXN | Range: 17.1780-17.2578
USDMXN trickled higher due to geopolitics and the latest Banxico decision to pause its easing cycle. The ongoining USMCA trade talks are a drag are helping to underpin the currency pair.
China
- USDCNY Fix: 6.8426 vs exp. 6.7945 (prev. 6.8467).
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI fell 0.8% to 4,948.05
Trump bringing Apple CEO Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and Boeing CEO to China. Xi Jinping expected to complain about US arms sales to Taiwan.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
