June 4, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3902, overnight range 1.3889-1.3925, close 1.3897
USDCAD rallied in Asia, on the back of renewed risk aversion but recovered some of the losses into the NY open as risk aversion faded. Yesterday’s ISM services reinforced the “inflation is a problem” narrative which has barred the door to Fed easing until year-end at best.
USDCAD was further supported by the wide CAD/US interest rate spread that favours the greenback.
WTI oil peaked at 95.92 overnight, supported by EIA data showing US crude inventories dropped by 7.97 million barrels last week, compared to the 3.27 million decline the week before. Prices remain elevated at 95.13 in NY.
US Challenger Job Cuts data showed 97,000 workers lost their jobs in May compared to 84,000 in April. Weekly jobless claims jumped by 13,000 to 225,0000 compared to last weeks revised down number of 212,000.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.3870, but price is facing extreme overbought resistance at the upper Bollinger Band (set at 3 standard deviations) at 1.3957. That suggests a downside test of the 1.3860 area is likely. A sustained break above this level targets 1.4050, while a retreat below 1.3870 opens a test of the 1.3800-1.3820 area.
The daily technicals are bullish above 1.3800, driven by the ascending trendline from the end of April lows and by the daily 100- and 200-day moving averages at 1.3789 and 1.3804, respectively.
USDCAD support is at 1.3860 and 1.3830. Resistance is at 1.3950 and 1.3980. Today’s range: 1.3860-1.3930.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
More of the Same
The US dollar enjoyed another round of safe-haven demand overnight. Israel and Lebanon agreed to another ceasefire while the US and Iran are mulling over renewing hostilities even as Trump continues to claim that negotiations are going really well.
To date, Trump’s three-month war on Iran managed to close the Strait of Hormuz, strengthen the IRGC’s grip on power, and accomplish nothing except needing a deal to restore the status quo he broke in the first place. That’s what happens when you replace experienced senior military personnel with a talk-show host.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets shifted to risk-off mode. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.48%. Japan’s Topix fell 1.11% and Australian ASX 200 dropped 1.13%.
As of 5:30 am PT European bourses are trading with a mixed note. The German DAX has gained 0.59%, the French CAC 40 is up 1.03% while the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.32%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.41%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.456%, DXY is 99.23, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,498.39..
EURUSD | Range 1.1605-1.1645
EURUSD has clawed back losses from the Asian session as traders got over earlier risk-off sentiment. Eurozone retail sales fell more than expected in April (actual -0.4% vs forecast -0.3%, and March 0.8% m/m). Traders are biding their time until Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3411-1.3463
Sterling tracked EURUSD moves and rallied to its session peak into the NY open. Traders shrugged off the construction PMI data (actual 38.2 vs 39.7 in April) which was due to higher energy costs.
USDJPY | Range 159.62-160.09
Traders taunted BoJ and MoF officials by driving USDJPY through 160.00, daring them to intervene. Markets were sceptical about reports the BoJ was discussing raising rates in June as such a move could exacerbate domestic economic weakness from the fall-out of the US attack on Iran.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7123-0.7149
The Australian dollar traded narrowly and saw a bit of support after the country erased the March trade deficit and posted a trade surplus of $1.8 billion, as expected.
USDMXN | Range 17.2677-17.3500
USDMXN recovered yesterday’s losses after negative risk sentiment seen in Asia dissipated in Europe and into early NY trading.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8203 vs exp. 6.7770 (prev. 6.8184).
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.69% to 4,904.75
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
