June 8, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3947, overnight range 1.3930-1.3954, close 1.3939
USDCAD ignored a surprisingly strong Canadian employment report on Friday when Statistics Canada announced that Canada added 87,000 new jobs in May which Canadian bank economists are describing as “solid” and enough to silence those talking about a recession. However CIBC economists warn that “we still haven’t improved beyond recent peaks and troughs in the employment-population ratio or unemployment rate respectively, and both are still a long way away from levels that we believe are consistent with a 2%.“
USDCAD resistance from higher oil prices was offset by falling gold prices and higher Treasury yields. Furthermore, the BoC is universally expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday.
WTI oil prices were 91.63 on Friday pre-NFP and hit 95.38 overnight before retreating to 91.48 in early NY. The prospect of higher US rates and renewed Iran and Israel missile strikes sparked the rally while the lack of follow-through retaliation in the Middle East improved risk sentiment.. Traders were unimpressed with OPEC’s latest decision to boost production by another 188,000 barrels/day beginning July 1.
The Canada and US economic data calendars are empty today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.3930 but price has retreated slightly from recent overbought readings near 85. Prices are pressing against the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, which may cap near-term gains and invite a modest pullback. A sustained break above 1.3970 opens a test of the 1.4000 area, while failure to hold 1.3920 shifts near-term focus back toward the 1.3860 support zone.
The daily technicals remain firmly bullish, with the 100- and 200-day moving averages at 1.3793 and 1.3806 providing solid underlying support. However, the daily RSI at 86.51 is deep into overbought territory which raises the risk of a corrective pullback before any further advance.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3920 and 1.3880. Resistance is at 1.3970 and 1.4000. Today’s range: 1.3880-1.3980.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Fall-Out Boy
The fall-out from Friday’s blow-out Non-farm Payrolls job gains (172,000), is that markets are no longer thinking rate cut but rate hikes. The FedWatch tool suggest the odds for a rate hike before year end are 67%. Those odds will rise sharply if this week’s US inflation numbers rise, as expected.
Traders were unimpressed. The stock sell-off on Friday continued overnight after investors and tech stocks decided to take a break from their loving relationship. Treasury yields and crude prices rose while gold (XAUUSD) fell 0.72% for a loss of 8.47% in the past month.
This morning, the US dollar is seeing some selling pressure in early NY trading helped by rising S&P500 futures, a dip in treasury yields from their overnight peaks.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets tanked to start the week. Japan’s Topix plunged 2.45%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.22%. Australian ASX 200 was closed for the Kings Birthday holiday.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are mixed. The German DAX is down 0.38%, the French CAC 40 has lost 0.23% while the UK FTSE 100 is flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.72%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.529%, the DXY is 99.92, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4330.64.
EURUSD | Range 1.1500-1.1544
EURUSD plummeted on Friday and then licked its wounds in a tight range overnight. The downside is still deriving support from an anticipated ECB rate hike to 2.25% on Thursday. German Factory Orders fell 3.8% in April compared to a gain of 4.5% in March which doesn’t bode well for Eurozone manufacturing data in the near term. The technicals are bearish below 1.1650.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3306-1.3370
Sterling is at the bottom of its two-week band due to the hawkish outlook for the Fed. A break below 1.3280 targets 1.3150. Comments by BoE policy maker Alan Taylor also weighed on the currency after he said he didn’t think UK rates need to go higher.
USDJPY | Range 159.85-160.39
USDJPY has recouped all of Friday’s post-NFP losses on the back of rising US Treasury yields and oil prices. Traders are feeling brave since the latest USDJPY excursion above 160.00 failed to trigger intervention. Even more surprising is that traders are ignoring speculation that the BoJ may raise rates next week.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7024-0.7079
The Australian dollar consolidated Friday’s losses in quiet trading. Australian markets were closed for a long weekend, which reduced liquidity.
USDMXN | Range 17.3967-17.5281
USDMXN popped Friday on the heels of the US NFP numbers then consolidated the move overnight. Prices are also underpinned by concerns around the USMCA trade talks and the American position of increased US content. Mexican consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since December 2022.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8198 vs exp. 6.7950 (prev. 6.8157)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 2.14% to 4,713.64
China Foreign Exchange reserves rose to a record $3.442 trillion, from $3.411 Trillion in April.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
