June 9, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3937, overnight range 1.3920-1.3960, close 1.3956
USDCAD has eased from its peak overnight level in early NY trading, weighed down by modestly better risk sentiment and lower oil prices.
Yet this sentiment fails to offset widening CAD/US two-year rate spreads that are bolstering the US dollar. The contrast highlights a clear monetary policy divergence: a sluggish economy keeps the BoC on hold, while the Fed may still need to hike rates.
WTI oil erased Monday’s rally and dropped from 95.21 to 88.81 and are now trading at 89.25 on hopes that the ceasefire between Israel, the US and Iran will hold.
The Canada and US economic data calendars are empty today.
Canada trade data is on tap. In the US, existing home sales and wholesale inventories are on tap.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are slightly bearish after failing to crack the 1.3960-1.3970 level and further losses below 1.3910 suggest a drop to 1.3860.
A sustained break above 1.3970 would confirm the developing ascending triangle on the daily chart and target 1.4100
The daily technicals remain firmly bullish. USDCAD is trading above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.3794 and 1.3806, respectively, and continues to post a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
USDCAD has failed to overcome resistance in the 1.3970 area, a level that has capped rallies since April. The RSI at 86.2 is deep in overbought territory, warning that upside progress may become increasingly difficult without a period of consolidation. Nevertheless, a weekly close above 1.3970 would complete an ascending triangle pattern and generate a measured objective toward the 1.4350-1.4400 area over the medium term.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3910 and 1.3870. Resistance is at 1.3970 and 1.4000. Today’s range: 1.3870-1.3970.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Getting Some Relief
Global risk sentiment improved, albeit modestly, after dip-buyers boosted the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday, aided by Trump’s assurances that they will declare total victory in two weeks. Oil prices retreated and the greenback consolidated recent gains.
OpenAI (ChatGPT) filed confidentially with the SEC for an IPO, but no details are available and the timing is up in the air. Still, it was enough to inject some positive sentiment into tech stocks.
The US data calendar is sparse until CPI data is released on Wednesday, and that suggests today will see an equity-driven FX market, keeping to narrow and well-established ranges.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed mixed. Japan’s Topix climbed 1.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, and the Australian ASX 200 closed flat.
As of 6:45 am, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.66%, the German DAX is up 0.40%, while the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.31%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.38%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.545%, the DXY is 99.72, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,336.91.
EURUSD | Range 1.1527-1.1575
EURUSD is trading at the top of its overnight session, getting a bit of a lift from German Industrial Production, which increased 0.4% m/m in April, as expected. Gains are limited due to elevated US Treasury yields.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3331-1.3408
The modest improvement in global risk sentiment underpinned GBPUSD and it drifted steadily higher overnight. However, lingering political uncertainty and expectations for the BoE to leave rates unchanged next week will limit gains. BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales rose 3.4% y/y in May, fully erasing last month’s 3.4% drop.
USDJPY | Range 160.08-160.28
USDJPY traders appear to believe that rising US interest rates amidst elevated oil prices more than offset the risk of BoJ intervention and a BoJ rate hike next week.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7034-0.7071
Aussies returned from a long weekend and bought the currency. The Australian dollar traded with a modest bid, supported by robust Chinese trade data and renewed optimism that the US/Iran and Israel/Iran conflicts will end soon. National Australia Bank Chief Economist Sally Auld changed her outlook for the RBA. She no longer expects a rate hike in August due to slowing economic growth.
USDMXN | Range 17.3762-17.4721
USDMXN slid to its session low in early NY trading after improved risk sentiment and sliding crude prices weighed on the currency. However, USMCA trade talks and the outlook for slowing growth will offset losses from MXN/US yield differentials.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8147 vs exp. 6.7809 (prev. 6.8198)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.87% to 4,801.81
China’s May trade surplus widened to $105.43 billion compared to $84.82 billion in April, powered by a 19.4% rise in exports (vs. 14.1% in April), while imports rose 27.4% compared to 25.3% in April. Exports surged on demand for chips, autos, and other high-tech goods.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
