June 11, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3979, overnight range 1.3932-1.3984, close 1.3945
USDCAD rallied on the heels of Trump’s announcement that he won’t renew CUSMA. It’s not a surprise, as various senior US officials have been trash-talking Canada all year. US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer blamed Canada for having the audacity to retaliate against US tariffs and said it “makes it difficult for us to negotiate.” What he is really saying is that Canada must agree to whatever America demands. Prime Minister Carney and Dominic LeBlanc continue to take the high road and politely say meaningful discussions are taking place.
USDCAD rallied on the news because, whatever happens, the Canadian economy will be in a worse place than before.
Adding insult to injury, India’s High Commissioner to Canada said India wants more Canadian oil and gas, but existing government policies and a lack of infrastructure are rather problematic.
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged yesterday, as expected, and the statement is considered dovish, mainly because of this: “Economic activity in Canada has been weak.” However, Governor Macklem may have been trying to inject a bit of two-way risk to the currency when he warned of an inflationary shock that could require consecutive rate hikes.
WTI oil is trading at the bottom of its 89.79-93.63 range after Iran and America failed to escalate hostilities following tit-for-tat attacks. Reportedly, China has helped put a lid on oil price gains by reducing oil imports by 29% in May.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.3905, but the rally is stretched. The 4-hour chart shows USDCAD hugging the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3982 after climbing steadily inside the rising channel from the May low near 1.3550. The momentum indicators are flashing caution, with the RSI near overbought territory. A break below 1.3940 targets 1.3910. with the channel support line, at 1.3870.
Longer term, USDCAD is bullish above 1.3808, the daily 200-day moving average supported by the steep uptrend channel intact since the May low. The daily MACD confirms the bullish bias, however, the daily RSI has breached the extreme overbought threshold, warning that the trend is vulnerable to a corrective pullback. As long as channel support holds, the uptrend targets 1.4071, the level marked by the upper daily Bollinger Band (3 standard deviations).
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.3940 and 1.3990. Resistance is at 1.4000 and 1.4050. Today’s expected range is 1.3920-1.4020.
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FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
SpaceX and World Cup
Trump needs to be the center of attention. However, today’s official kick-off of the FIFA World Cup and Friday’s over-subscribed SpaceX IPO prompted him to announce further attacks on Iran.
At 8:20 am ET, He tweeted on TruthSocial “The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP.
Markets barely reacted to the tweet due to Trump fatigue.
Inflation and Jobs
US PPI data rose more than expected (actual 6.5% y/y forecast 6.4%) but Core CPI rose 4.9%, well below forecasts for a 5.4% increase. Weekly jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 229,000.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed in the red. Japan’s Topix dropped 0.46%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.65%, while the Australian ASX 200 closed down 0.23%.
As of 7:30 am, European bourses are mixed and off their best levels. The French CAC 40 is up 0.33%, the UK FTSE 100 has gained 0.56% and the German DAX is down 0.22%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.38%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.541%, the DXY is 100.11, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,068.85.
EURUSD | Range 1.1517-1.1557
EURUSD is trading cautiously. The ECB hiked rates by 25 bp to 2.25%, as expected while boosting its inflation forecast to 3.0% from 2.6% previously. Furthermore Euro area growth forecasts were revised downwards. 20256 growth is expected to be 0.8% (previously 0.9%) and 1.2% in 2027 (previously 1.3%).
GBPUSD | Range 1.3341-1.3392
Sterling traded choppily in a tight range and is trading at session lows in early NY due to Trump’s latest Iran aggression. The BoE is expected to raise rates in September, which is helping to provide a floor for the currency, while gains are capped by concerns of a negative impact on growth from higher oil prices and disrupted supply chains.
USDJPY | Range 160.43-160.60
USDJPY idled in a tight band. Prices were underpinned by steady to firm US Treasury yields and by poor risk sentiment due to Iran and US tensions. However, fears of FX intervention and expectations for the BoJ to hike rates by 25 bps to 1.0% next week are limiting topside moves. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to stay for two weeks.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6988-0.7013
Aussies traded sideways due to steady US dollar demand and diminished risk sentiment from renewed US/Iran hostilities and wobbly equity markets.
USDMXN | Range 17.3998-17.4146
USDMXN is trading quietly, albeit with a bit of a bid due to souring global risk sentiment and renewed trade tensions with America. Trump said he won’t renew the USMCA deal. Mexico industrial production rose 2.3% y/y.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8150 (prev. 6.8130).
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.55% to 4,722.41
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Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
