Agility Forex Daily
June 22, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.4173, overnight range 1.41455-1.4194, close 1.4155
USDCAD inched higher on the back of higher US treasury yields after Trump chirped about bombing Iran, in the middle of VP Vance’s peace talks with Iran in Switzerland. The Irani’s walked out, mediators scrambled to soothe ruffle feathers and then the talks resumed. However, the damage was done. The US dollar caught a bid and Treasury yields rose.
USDCAD continued to be underpinned after the weaker than expected Retail Sales numbers for April. Analysts suggest that higher gas prices took a bite out of consumer spending.
However, USDCAD attracted sellers after Canadian inflation surged in May, rising 3.2% y/y m/m forecast 3.0%, April 2.8%). No big deal.
The details beneath the headline tell a much softer story. Gasoline prices surged 33.2% y/y, up from 28.6% in April, largely due to Middle East supply concerns and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Excluding gasoline, CPI was 2.2%, and excluding all energy, it was just 2.1%. Energy prices as a whole rose 22.2%, suggesting most of the inflation overshoot was imported, oil-driven, the kind of supply shock central banks typically look through rather than respond. Notably, Statistics Canada confirmed the CPI result was unchanged by the 2026 basket update.
The BoC’s preferred core inflation measures reinforce that view. CPI-trim held at 2.0%, CPI-median was unchanged at 2.1%, and CPI-common edged up to 2.7% from 2.5%. All remain within the Bank’s target range, with trim and median effectively at target.
WTI oil prices dropped Friday and consolidated overnight, although the Trump-fueled drama caused a spike to 78.08 before prices retreated to the overnight low of 74.92. The Strait of Hormuz is open but few ship captains are willing to make the passage.
Canada CPI is expected to rise and 3.0% y/y (2.8% previously)
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The technicals are bullish and setting the stage for an explosive move higher. The intraday chart is bullish following the decisive move above 1.4080, with USDCAD now trading near 1.4170 and pinned to the upper Bollinger Band. A decisive break above 1.4180 suggest further gains to 1.4275.
Longer term, USDCAD is bullish above 1.3814, the daily 200-day moving average, with the ascending channel from the May low firmly intact and price now above the 1.4150 area that capped the November and December rallies earlier in the cycle. That puts 1.4280 in play which was last seen on April 8, 2025.
The daily MACD confirms the trend, but the daily RSI is at an extreme level of 97.44, the most overbought reading of the entire run and warning that a corrective pullback is overdue.
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.4080 and 1.4040. Resistance is at 1.4150 and 1.4180. Today’s expected range is 1.4075-1.4185.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Bombing Peace Talks
The mouth that roared did it again. VP Vance was having peace talks with an Iranian delegation in Switzerland. That’s when Trump decided it was a good time to announce he would bomb Iran, because Hezbollah was still fighting Israel. Iran responded by announcing the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
That irked Trump who said, “You close it, and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your f—ing country.” That quickly put an end to the talks when the Iranian’s left.
Nevertheless, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan got both sides back together. The US officials, at least those who are not suffering from narcissist dementia), announced major progress. Iran concurred.
The news knocked oil prices from peak levels but nervous traders bought the US dollar and boosted Treasury yields.
Taking Stock
Asian equity markets finished mixed. Japan’s Topix rose 1.24%, Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.14%. and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index was flat.
As of 7:00 am, European bourses are trading are mixed. The UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.48%, the German DAX has gained 0.16% and the French CAC 40 is down 0.15%. S&P 500 futures are unchanged. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.496%, the DXY is 100.84 (after peaking at 101.02), and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,195.23.
EURUSD | Range 1.1442-1.1474
EURUSD did not get any traction in either direction. Pressure remains following what many consider a hawkish FOMC outcome but that is being offset by positive developments around the US and Iran war. EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.1590 and looking for a break below 1.1410.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3184-1.3274
GBPUSD danced erratically but quickly shrugged off political drama to return to its session peak in early NY trade and then add to the gains in NY. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation but will stay on until Labour chooses a new leader. His policies contributed to heavy defeats in local elections and a few bad calls had backbenchers sharpening their knives. Time for the UK to find its 7th leader in less than 10 years. GBPUSD technicals are bearish below 1.3400.
USDJPY | Range 161.24-161.79
USDJPY continued to grind higher due to the wide US and Japan interest rate gap, firm oil prices and broad-based US dollar demand. Intervention threats are falling on deaf ears, partly because traders believe intervention would be ineffective unless it occurs with a simultaneous BoJ rate hike.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6994-0.7019
Aussie traded cautiously due to ongoing geopolitical tensions especially Trump’s latest threat to bomb Iran. The downside is getting a bit of support from the RBA’s hawkish rate outlook and traders are looking to Wednesday’s inflation data for confirmation that an August rate hike is possible.
USDMXN | Range 17.3164-17.3685
USDMXN traded fairly narrowly but underpinned by on/off US and Iran tensions and general US dollar strength. Higher US Treasury yields added fuel to the demand.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8150 vs exp. 6.7733 (prev. 6.8130)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 2.39% to 5,059.66
PBoC leaves LPR unchanged at 3.0%, as expected.
Stocks rallied on a mix of positive sentiment stemming from Goldman Sach optimism around Chinese equities and the recent foreign investment push by Beijing.
China adds 8 US companies to export control risk including MP Materials and USA rare earths for being linked to the US military. It’s in retaliation for the same move America made against Chinese companies.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
