July 13, 2025
USDCAD open: 1.4141, overnight range 1.4125-14175, close 1.4155
USDCAD is trading with a bit of a negative bias. Friday’s employment report was “meh, ” but the good news was that it didn’t suck. USDCAD is under pressure because of improved risk sentiment after this weekend’s US/Iran missile and drone strikes failed to escalate.
Traders are awaiting this week’s US inflation reports and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony to Congress in hopes of getting a better sense of the path for US interest rates.
The Bank of Canada releases a fresh suite of data including the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and interest rate decision on Wednesday.
WTI oil prices traded in a 72.61-75.06 range and are sitting at 73.73 in NY. The support stems from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are modestly bearish below 1.4190 but the hourly RSI has climbed above its moving average, suggesting downside momentum is fading. A decisive break below 1.4120 targets 1.4090, while a move back above 1.4190 shifts the focus to 1.4230.
The longer-term outlook remains bullish above 1.4020, where the daily lower Bollinger band guards the uptrend that has carried price up from the SMMA100 base near 1.3840. The daily RSI has crossed below its moving average after the sharp rally into the mid-1.43s, confirming this week’s pullback is a genuine momentum correction rather than just noise, but it’s occurring within an intact broader uptrend, not a trend reversal, as long as 1.4020 holds.
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.4100 and 1.4070. Resistance is at 1.4190 and 1.4230.
Today’s expected range is 1.4110-1.4190
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Interesting Week Ahead-Deathly Dull Day Today
With markets relegating the US and Iran war to the equivalent of a regional diplomatic stance, attention turns to this week’s US inflation reports and then what the Fed Chair will say about them. CPI data is released Tuesday, followed by PPI on Wednesday and Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress. A host of FOMC officials will be adding their comments about the state of US markets throughout the week.
There are no Canadian or US economic reports of note today.
Attack/Counterattack
Another weekend, another round of US/Iran attacks. The US claimed to hit targets in Iran and Iran attacked US military bases in six of its neighbors and announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The news sent WTI oil prices to 75.08 in Asia before they retreated when the tit-for-tat attacks didn’t devolve into all-out war.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indexes were spooked by the latest US/Iran hostilities. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.16%, Australia’s ASX 200 closed flat, and Japan’s Topix lost 0.71%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are flat, except the FTSE 100 which is down 0.22%S&P 500 futures have lost 0.40%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.589%, the DXY is 100.97, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,060.51.
EURUSD | Range 1.1385-1.1446
EURUSD dropped to its session low in Asia due to the latest Iran/US attacks. The lack of follow-up attacks by either side improved risk sentiment even though Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Traders took heart from reports that both sides plan to continue talks, which caused oil prices to retreat.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3367-1.3412
GBPUSD mirrored EURUSD and got an added lift from rising Gilt yields. Traders are concerned that Andy Burnham, who is expected to become UK Prime Minister on July 17, will adopt an “expansionary budget” which increase inflationary pressures. That belief is underpinning odds for higher UK interest rates.
USDJPY | Range 161.70-162.36
USDJPY rallied on the back of higher oil prices following the resumption of Middle East hostilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rally was underpinned by a Reuters report that said the Japanese government denied “immediate” plans to change state pension fund allocation rules.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6924-0.6950
The Australian dollar drifted with the risk sentiment tide. Last week’s hawkish comments from RBA officials put a bit of a floor under the currency.
USDMXN | Range 17.4699-17.5340
USDMXN bounced around from the prevailing risk sentiment overnight but remains rangebound. Traders awaiting more clarity in the outlook for US interest rates.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.7972 vs exp. 6.7850 (prev. 6.7989)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.79% to 4,695.38
The CSI 300 Index fell from its June 30 peak of 4979.43 down to 4695.38 by July 13, 2026, marking a sharp 5.70% correction over the span of two weeks. The drop was due to geopolitics, and tech concerns.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview
