Agility Forex Daily
USDCAD open: 1.3777, overnight range 1.3766-1.3791, close 1.3785
USDCAD ignored the latest tariff noise from Trump. Yesterday he banned imports of Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy and motorcycles. He followed that with another announcement that said he is directing the General Services Administration, working with the USTR, to take all necessary steps to remove Canadian-origin products from GSA’s Multiple Award Schedules.
US forces continue to battle an Iranian military which, back in April, Trump said was obliterated. So yesterday, the obliterated IRGC attacked 10 ships including eight oil tankers and 2 US vessels while firing ballistic missiles at an American military base in Jordan. They said it was in retaliation for the US attacking 5 Iranian oil tankers.
Oil traders just shake their heads and buy crude as the latest escalation of hostilities points to a more protracted conflict. WTI oil rose from $93.77-$95.66 and it is just below the top in early NY trading.
The US and Canadian economic calendars are empty of top-tier data today.
USDCAD Technicals
USDCAD is bearish below 1.3840 and is in a downtrend channel, with prices below the 200-day moving average at 1.3835 and below the 20, 50 and 100-day EMAs (1.3858, 1.3920 and 1.3918), keeping the near-term bias bearish. The RSI and a MACD histogram that remains negative and below its signal line both confirm the weak momentum.
Longer term, USDCAD has already broken the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the January-July range (1.3875) and is now grinding through the 61.8 percent level at 1.3785. A close below 1.3730, which is also the daily lower Bollinger band, targets the 78.6 percent retracement at 1.3656 in play.
For today, support is 1.3760 and 1.3720 and resistance is at 1.3810 and 1.3840.
Todays Range 1.3740-1.3820
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Markets Marking Time
There isn’t a whole lot of top tier-US economic data available until Friday’s inflation numbers which will set the tone for the September 16 FOMC meeting. The odds for a hike are still 60%.
Bond traders are waiting to see the results of today’s expanded Treasury buyback, which Bessent claims is a direct attempt to cool what he describes as a speculative “fever” in the long end of the bond market.
The real question is whether it will work.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed modestly lower to flat. The Hang Seng fell 0.17% while Japan’s Topix and Australia’s ASX 200 finished close to unchanged.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are deep in the red. The French CAC 40 is down 1.90%, the German DAX has lost 1.66% and the UK FTSE 100 is down 1.12%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.43%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.812%, the DXY is 98.68 and gold is $4,391.14
EURUSD | Range 1.1622-1.1654
EURUSD traded uneventfully due to a lack of economic data and even the latest round of
US and Iran hostilities failed to spark any interest. Traders are looking ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting when a 25 bp rate hike is expected to be announced and then Friday’s US CPI numbers.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3531-1.3568
GBPUSD is trading with a mild bid in a tight range as expectations for a hawkish Bank of England outlook clash with UK concerns around the October 28 UK budget. The government faces high borrowing costs in a rising inflation environment, which makes promised spending initiatives hard to justify.
USDJPY | Range 152.95-154.01
USDJPY is trading defensively despite the latest surge in crude prices. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has no appetite for humble pie. He is taking credit for the 4.0% rise in the yen this month saying, “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do.”
The longer-term outlook for USDJPY is lower due to the prospect of quickly rising Japanese interest rates and on anticipation that Japanese investors will repatriate overseas funds.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7212-0.7238
AUDUSD remains firmly bid, supported by an increasingly hawkish outlook from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers.
Recent commentary highlights that imminent rate hikes are back on the table to combat stubbornly sticky inflation. The shift in tone has been dramatic enough that Australia’s “Big Four” banks have now aligned, with all four predicting the RBA will lift the cash rate at its upcoming September 29 meeting.
USDMXN | Range 16.8929-16.9902
USDMXN traded sideways due to increased global risk sentiment and yesterday’s Mexican budget proposal. The proposal downgraded 2026 growth to 1.0%-2.0% from 1.8%-2.8% previously. Mexican CPI rose 0.2% in August (forecast 0.25%, previous 0.3%.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: Today: 6.7769 vs Exp. 6.7042 (prev. 6.7804)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.30% to 4,572.60
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview
