September 21, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.4022, overnight range 1.3983-1.4023, close 1.3985
USDCAD rallied in Asia on the back of negative risk sentiment but reversed some of the move into the NY open. Prices continue to be supported by the wide CAD/US interest rate differentials and the overnight drop of 1.04% in WTI oil prices since Friday.
WTI peaked at $103.50 on Friday on fears of renewed US attacks on Iran, then traded in a $92.71-$96.98 range overnight, when it didn’t happen. The sell-off is due to reports that Trump said he is open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian who is in NY for the UN meeting.
The drop is even more impressive as it occurred on the heels of the news that Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu with drones and missiles and triggered air raid sirens in Riyadh.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is speaking about “economic developments” in Halifax today.
There are no major Canadian or US economic reports on the calendar today.
USDCAD Technicals
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3970 but RSI is deeply overbought on the daily chart and the 4-hour MACD line are starting to signal that the rally may need to pause here. A break above 1.4030 opens the door to 1.4060, the 61.8% retracement of the broader range, while a move back below 1.3970 suggests a retest of 1.3940.
Longer term, the 1.3760-1.4030 range that has contained price action since the middle of July is being tested. A sustained close above 1.4030 keeps 1.4150 in view, and then 1.4250, the July high.
For today, support is 1.3970 and 1.3940. Resistance is 1.4030 and 1.4060.
Today’s range 1.3960-1.4030.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Rates and the UN
Fed policymakers Neal Kashkari and Jeffrey Schmid gave the greenback a bit of support as both reiterated their support for last week’s Fed rate hike due to inflationary risks. The comments were nothing special but they served to remind markets that the Fed has a rather hawkish bias.
The annual UN General assembly is in full swing this week and traders are on alert for sideline negotiations. Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is hoping to wrangle a Trump meeting ahead of Trump’s talks with Xi Jinping. There could even be talks with Trump and Iran’s president.
Taking Stock
Asia equity indexes closed mostly flat with Japan’s Topix and Australia’s ASX 200 unchanged. However, the Hong Kong Hang Seng rose 1.18%.
As of 5:40 am PT, European bourses have surged higher led by a 1.16% rise in the German Dax. The French CAC-40 is up 1.02%, the UK FTSE 100 index has gained 1.00% and S&P 500 futures are up 0.66%. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.964%, the DXY is 100.25 and gold is $4,357.48.
EURUSD | Range 1.1471-1.1496
EURUSD stayed range-bound ahead but with a negative bias due to the lingering impact of the hawkish Fed outlook following last week’s rate hike. Germany’s right wing, Afd party won the election in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern region but the other political parties have ruled out entering into a governing coalition with what they believe is a neo-Nazi party.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3369-1.3401
Sterling is trading defensively due to a lack of economic data drivers, except the UK Rightmove data, which is down 0.8% y/y. Traders are distracted by the upcoming Xi/Trump trade talks, although they do not expect much, and the start of the UN General Assembly tomorrow.
USDJPY | Range 156.58-157.37
USDJPY struggled for direction with Tokyo shut for a three-day break. Markets are still digesting Friday’s rate hike, and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s dovish remarks emphasising caution which suggested another rate hike was not a sure thing. Traders dismissed a report that the BoJ conducted a “rate check” with market participants late last week and USDJPY is at the top of its range in NY.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7112-0.7141
The Aussie held a tight range even as Australia’s biggest banks are predicting that the RBA will raise rates on September 29. Traders are also awaiting to hear RBA Governor Michele Bullocks comments tomorrow.
USDMXN | Range 17.1844-17.2384
USDMXN is slowly giving back Friday’s gains mainly due to concerns that Banxico could deliver a hawkish outlook even though it will leave rates unchanged on Thursday. Mexican authorities are apparently taking advantage of Trump’s hostility towards Canada to secure a trade deal.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix 6.7487 vs Exp. 6.6951 (prev. 6.7521).
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.71% to 4,539.56
China 1-Year Loan Prime Rate left unchanged at 3.00% as expected, and the 5-Year LPR was unchanged a 3.50% as expected.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had successful engagement with Chinese negotiators on trade and AI. They are planning to meet in two months to talk about extending the tariff truce. Trump’s history of walking away from trade agreements suggests that China views any deal as temporary and contingent rather than guaranteed.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview
