October 7, 2026
USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4227 overnight range 1.4206-1.4281, close 1.4209
USDCAD started todays NY session rangebound between 1.4200-14250 but with a mild bid. That changed with the surge in oil prices and Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.73%, a level last seen in October 2000. The 10-year jumped from 5.296% to 5.352% this morning.
WTI oil traded in a $89.36-$90.58 range and prices are steady as increased oil supply is offset ongoing Middle East supply threats.
Iran and Trump have widely differing views about oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump insists millions of barrels have been delivered and that prices will fall way down once the war ends, which he says will be soon. Traders are unconvinced, especially after reports of a ship attacked off Oman’s Musandam coast, missiles launched toward the Strait and an Emirati tanker turned back despite a US escort.
Trump’s trade war and his latest comment saying he is in no hurry to restart talks with Canada is hampering Loonie gains.
The US and Canadian economic calendars are empty.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD bias is bullish after prices powered through the 4-hour mid-Bollinger Band at 1.4237 and the failure to break below 1.4200, the bottom of the uptrend channel from September 9.
Longer term, USDCAD remains above the daily mid-Bollinger Band at 1.4204 and well above the 200-day SMA at 1.3865, so the rally from 1.3760 has corrected, not reversed. The twin peaks at 1.4294 and 1.4290 on Monday and Tuesday have formed a minor double top and if it is broken, will extend gains to 1.4350 and target 1.4550.
A break below 1.4190 would target the daily lower 3D Bollinger Band at 1.4080.
For today, support is 1.4230 and 1.4200. Resistance is 1.4290 and 1.4320
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
FOMC Minutes-Stale Out of the Gate
The September FOMC minutes are stale after a slew of economic data since September 16, a host of Fed policymakers led to a sharp downgrade of October rate hike expectations. The CME FedWatch tool puts the chance of an October hike at 21.6%, down from roughly 51% a week ago, after softer personal consumption expenditure and jobs data.
New York Fed President John Williams urged patience, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said more data was needed, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman signaled rates could remain unchanged through 2026.
Taking Stock
Asian equity indexes closed lower. Japan’s Topix lost 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.62%, and Australia’s ASX 200 was flat.
As of 5:45 am PT European bourses are deep in the red but off its worst levels. The German DAX at 25,154.19 is down 1.16%. The French CAC 40 at 7,784.02 has lost 1.03% and the UK FTSE 100 dropped 0.47% to 10,492.97. S&P 500 futures are down 0.42% after the index set a record close near 7,818.93 on Tuesday. The US 10-year yield is 5.346%, the DXY is 102.46, and gold (XAUUSD) is at 4,083.26.
EURUSD | Range 1.1165-1.1263
EURUSD surrendered all of Tuesday’s French relief rally, due to US dollar strength as French political and fiscal drama weigh on the single currency. France has announced plans to issue a record €340 billion ($381 billion) in bonds in 2027 to fund the government and refinance pandemic-era debt.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3194-1.3277
Sterling drifted lower steadily overnight and started today’s NY session at the low although it remains in the 1.3180-1.3310 band that has contained prices since September 30. The downside is getting a little support from the 88% odds that the BoE will hike rates by 25 bps on November 5.
USDJPY | Range 157.85-158.51
USDJPY had a choppy session just before the UK markets opened for business with prices plunging to the session low rapidly and without an apparent catalyst. The have since recovered most of the losses in early NY trading. BoJ board member Ayano Sato, one of two dissenters at the September 18 BoJ policy meeting who voted against hiking rates, turned hawkish with comments that backed gradual hikes.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6943-0.6985
AUDUSD traded sideways with prices weighed down by a firm greenback and is stuck between a firm dollar and downgraded odds for a follow-up rate hike from the RBA. a calendar that offers nothing more thrilling than a consumer inflation expectations survey tonight.
USDMXN | Range 17.9624-18.1235
USDMXN ticked higher steadily overnight. The upward bias continues to be driven by a narrowing US-Mexico interest rate differential following Federal Reserve hikes, coupled with yesterday’s weaker consumer confidence data and the latest IMF warnings regarding Mexico’s fiscal debt and slower 1.5% economic growth projections
CHINA
Chinese markets are closed for Golden Week Oct. 1-Oct. 7. Reopen Thursday
- PBoC Fix: Market closed
- USDCNH: 6.7054 (-0.0078)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Closed (last 4,357.62 on September 30)
- Foreign exchange reserves for September came in at $3.4 trillion versus $3.438 trillion in August.
Chart: Offshore yuan USDCNH
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview
