October 9, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4229, overnight range 1.4207-1.4298, close 1.4226

USDCAD tested the bottom of its two-week range overnight and promptly decided it didn’t like the view and is now trading at its session peak. Then, moments after the release of the September Labour Force Survey, it tested the top.

Canada’s September employment data was far weaker than expected. Canada lost another 68,300 (forecast 7,000) jobs on top of the 41,700 in August. Unemployment is expected to edge up to 6.5% from 6.4%.

The numbers are not as ugly as they look. In fact, they are a nine dressed up as a three. Public sector employment fell 70,000 and job losses in this sector are part of the Carney government’s objective of reducing the total federal headcount which ballooned under the Trudeau government. Furthermore, the cuts do not have any impact on what the BoC call’s the output gap.

Public sector employment was little changed. Furthermore, employment remains 95,000 higher than a year ago, private-sector employment is up 163,000 year over year, and wage growth accelerated modestly

WTI oil traded in a $90.08-91.51 range. Prices are well-off this week’s peak of $93.20 but the intraday technicals are bullish while they are above $89.70. Trump’s comment about delaying a previously announced, previously delayed , then reannounced threat to attack Iran before the US mid-term elections led to the lower crude prices

Today’s US data includes University of Michigan preliminary October Sentiment which is expected to drop to 47.6 from 48.1.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD bias is bullish while trading above 1.4200 and looking for a break above the 1.4294 double top to extend gains to 1.4350. The trading range from September 24 is intact and bound by 1.4130 on the bottom and 1.4295 on the top.

Longer term, USDCAD is no longer overbought as the daily RSI has dropped to 61 from 93 on Tuesday. A decisive break above 1.4294 would cancel the double top and put 1.4370 area in play.  A break below 1.4200 would target 1.4150.

For today, support is 1.4200 and 1.4160. Resistance is 1.4250 and 1.4295

Today’s range 1.4220-1.4320.

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

TACO Trump Returns

President Trump said he would not attack Iran ahead of the mid-terms because he is having productive discussions. President Pezeshkian insists Iran never abandoned negotiations and is preparing proposals through intermediaries, but Tehran’s atomic energy chief remains adamant that uranium enrichment is not up for negotiation, and its uranium will not be surrendered.

The comments improved the risk mood. Treasury yields slid and the Treasury’s 30-year auction saw solid demand. The US dollar index retreated from its 102.42 peak yesterday.

Taking Stock

Asia closed with gains. Japan’s Topix finished up 0.33%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng gained 1.79% and the Australian ASX 200 closed with a 0.64% gain.

As of 7:15 am, European markets are broadly firmer but off their best levels. The German DAX is up 1.02%, and the French CAC 40 is up 0.69%,  and the UK FTSE 100 has gained 0.94%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.34%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.24%, the US Dollar Index is at 102.18, and gold (XAUUSD) is at $4,183.22.

EURUSD | Range 1.1202-1.1243

The single currency traded with a negative bias all week due to French political and fiscal drama, which drove OAT yields higher. Prices have retreated from the overnight peak despite mildly improved risk sentiment from Trump’s decision to delay (at least today) attacking Iran and the subsequent drift lower in oil prices.

GBPUSD | Range 1.3217-1.3251

GBPUSD is grinding higher after hitting a three-month low yesterday, but the gains are merely a correction inside its two-week band of 1.3180-1.3310. Prices continue to be weighed down by elevated gilt yields but underpinned by the odds of a November BoE rate hike.

USDJPY | Range 157.76-158.41

USDJPY is rallying despite the drop in crude prices due to recent dovish-sounding comments by BoJ officials and expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in December. Japan’s household spending data showed a 3.1% decline in August, the eighth consecutive drop and an indication of weakness in consumer demand.

AUDUSD | Range 0.6956-0.6989

AUDUSD is squeezing out gains on the back of improved risk sentiment, a retreat in global bond yields, particularly Treasuries, and a modestly weaker US dollar. Traders are looking ahead to the RBA minutes from the September 29 meeting, which are released Tuesday.

USDMXN | Range 18.1427-18.2070

USDMXN is rangebound as it consolidates September’s gains in a 17.9000-18.4000 band. The combination of a dovish-to-neutral Banxico compared to a hawkish Fed bias has fuelled the rally, in addition to US and Mexico trade uncertainty. President Sheinbaum is reportedly getting increasingly frustrated with the Americans’ increasing demands that encroach on Mexican sovereignty.

CHINA

PBoC Fix: 6.7330 vs exp. 6.6973 (prev. 6.7367)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.16% to 4,317.26

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview