October 19, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4096, overnight range 1.4071-1.4135, close 1.4141

USDCAD reclaimed 1.4100 in the wake of a slightly cooler than expected September headline inflation number (actual CPI 3.1% y/, forecast 3.2%, previous 3.0%) after making the session low in early NY trading. CPI rose 3.1% y/y (forecast 3.2%, previous 3.0%)

Last week’s semiconductor/tech stock sell-off and a drop in US treasury yields fueled widespread US dollar selling and the loonie caught the updraft. It is a quiet week for US data and Fed speakers are in the FOMC meeting blackout period leaving tech company earnings, beginning with Meta and Tesla on Wednesday to drive FX direction.

Albertan’s go to the polls today. It is a referendum for a referendum on whether the province should remain part of Canada, with the key question (to paraphrase The Clash) “Should I stay, or should I go?

The actual question is: Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?

Option 1: Alberta should remain a province of Canada.

Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

It is a chapter out of the Quebec playbook which has been used successfully to extract and never-ending list of concessions and money from the federal government.

WTI gapped lower overnight falling from $101.86/ Friday to a low of $96.74 today, before drifting higher into the NY open. President Trump’s executive order waiving Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy raised the prospect of more Russian crude finding its way to market, sent prices lower.

The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey is due today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD bias is bearish after Friday’s decisive breech of 1.4140 while trading below 1.4140, sets the stage for a break below support at 1.4070 to target 1.4000. A move above 1.4105 targets 1.4140.

Longer term, the unwinding of the September rally is gathering pace. USDCAD has sliced through the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May to October rally at 1.4137 and is heading for a strong support zone at 1.4010-1.4040, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.4013 meets the 100-day SMA at 1.4039. However, the daily RSI has is oversold. A decisive break below 1.4000 would open the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3925, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.3880. A recovery above 1.4140 would ease the downside pressure and put the old range floor at 1.4195 back in play.

For today, support is 1.4060 and 1.4010. Resistance is 1.4110 and 1.4140. today’s Range 1.4060-1.4140.

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

Europe Unrest

France had one of its ugliest days of unrest in years, with roughly 550,000 people in the streets over the cost of living and education, and the trouble spread to Milan, Lisbon and Brussels. President Macron called the violence shocking. The market’s worry is not the barricades but the budget. The government wants austerity to bring down the deficit, and the population wants nothing to do with that notion.

Moscow Gets a Pass

Trump says significant progress is being made on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and has waived sanctions on Russian energy to keep Moscow at the table, a move that drew criticism from Republicans and Democrats. Putin is reportedly floating the idea of having a summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine with only Trump and Xi Jinping invited.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Middle East quagmire remains highly volatile, as ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a tense standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt the global supply chain.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indexes closed Monday flat to slightly higher. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.44% to 8,845.70 while Japan’s Topix was unchanged; Hong Kong was closed for the Chung Yeung Festival.

As of 7:25 am, European stocks are in the gutter. The French CAC-40 has dropped 1.47%, the German DAX has lost 1.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 is down 1.08%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.47%, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.077%, the DXY is 101.81 and gold (XAUUSD) is $4,173.73.

EURUSD | Range 1.1182-1.1235

Euro dropped then popped in a choppy overnight session. Broad-based US dollar weakness gave the single currency a boost, but the unrest in France (and other European centers) and widening OAT/Bund spreads on French budget concerns will cap gains.

GBPUSD | Range 1.3308-1.3342

Sterling is consolidating last week’s gains and getting support from the weaker US dollar and from EURGBP selling due to French riots and fiscal woes. UK Rightmove house prices rose 1.0% m/m in October (previous 0.7%). Traders are looking ahead to the UK labour market report tomorrow, followed by September CPI on Wednesday.

USDJPY | Range 157.70-158.34

USDJPY traded erratically in a tight band. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is now quite close to the 2% target and that raising rates at an appropriate pace would help keep bond yields from spiking, which the market read as mildly hawkish. In addition, intervention risk keeps a lid on the topside.

AUDUSD | Range 0.6953-0.6992

The Aussie rallied steadily overnight, with the gains fueled by the surge in China GDP data alongside ongoing US dollar weakness. RBA Assistant Governor Kent added a hawkish note, saying the neutral rate appears to be rising and that the open question is whether policy is restrictive enough.

USDMXN | Range 18.4402-18.5511

USDMXN traded choppily but with a bid as the squeeze on the Mexico-US rate gap is eroding the carry appeal. The stalled US and Mexico trade talks are not helping sentiment, nor are Banxico’s latest minutes, which leaned toward more easing.

CHINA

PBoC Fix: 6.7208 vs exp. 6.6897 (prev. 6.7220)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.09% to 4,4174.54

China’s GDP rose 4.5% y/y, within the government’s annual goal of 4.5%-5%.

Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView