November 3, 2026
USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.3960, overnight range 1.3958-1.3997, close 1.3986
USDCAD drifted aimlessly in an uneventful overnight session and that won’t change today. All eyes are on the clown show that American’s call mid-term elections. Control of Congress is at stake and the mainstream press is convinced it will be won by Democrats. In 2016, they were equally convinced that Hillary Clinton would become the 45th president.
WTI dropped steadily, falling from $96.12 to $94.55 in early NY, without any apparent catalyst for the drop. Perhaps traders are giving more weight to hopes for an end to US and Iran hostilities rose after Iran’s Supreme Leader told officials to negotiate a settlement.
There is no Canadian data of note today. Governor Macklem speaks to parliament at 11:00 am.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are little changed from yesterday. the have a bearish bias from mid-October while prices are below1.4040, a level guarded by resistance in the 1.4020 area A recovery above 1.4020 targets 1.4080.
Longer term, the technicals are unchanged. USDCAD is in a downtrend, confirmed by the breaks below 1.4130 and then 1.4000, and it remains below the 100-day moving average at 1.4047. A decisive break below 1.3940 targets the May uptrend line, which comes into play at 1.3850 and is guarded by the 200-day moving average at 1.3888.
For today, USDCAD support is 1.3940 and 1.3910. Resistance is 1.3990 and 1.4020.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Mid-terms and Rate hikes
The American mid-term elections have finally arrived. Traders are likely to sit on the sidelines until after the results. The two key questions are: 1) Will Democrats gain control of the House and Senate? 2) Will Trump recognize the results?
Meanwhile, the hiking cycle keeps spreading. The RBA lifted rates for the fifth time this year, the BoE is widely expected to follow on Thursday, and CME pricing still has roughly 73% odds of a Fed hike in December, down from 80% a week ago after some soothing Fed commentary. That’s on Trump. His policies have ignited a rate tightening cycle in all the major G-10 countries.
Today’s US data include JOLTS job openings for September (forecast 7.164 million, previous 7.079 million), and factory orders (forecast +1.2%).
Taking Stock
Asia closed on a mixed note with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 0.57% and Australia’s ASX 200 gaining 0.34%, while Japan’s Topix was closed for a holiday.
As of 5:35 am PT, the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.71, the German DAX has lost 0.54% and the French CAC-40 has fallen 0.13%. S&P 500 futures flipped from negative in Europe to a gain of 0.23% in NY%, the US 10-year yield is at 4.914%, DXY is 101.72 and gold (XAUUSD) is at $3,961.67.
EURUSD | Range 1.1149-1.1237
The euro is consolidating recent gains in an unmotivated market as a lack of actionable economic data and caution ahead of the US elections sidelined traders. However, prices got a bit of support from the slide in oil prices on renewed hopes for a diplomatic solution to the US/Iran war.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3396-1.3426
GBPUSD is firm and trading with a small bid ahead of the US drama and Thursday’s Bank of England monetary policy decision. The BoE is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.00% mainly due to sticky inflation.
USDJPY | Range 157.75-158.30
USDJPY is trading at its session high in NY, seemingly ignoring yesterday’s warning by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterating the risk of joint US and Japan FX intervention. Prices are underpinned by wide US-Japan yield spread
s but sliding oil prices may slow gains. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6962-0.7005
The RBA hiked rates 25bp to 4.85%, its highest since 2008, as expected, but the vote was split 6-3 with three members wanting to hold. Governor Bullock’s comments were considered dovish as she did not suggest further tightening was in the cards and AUDUSD fell.
USDMXN | Range 18.5521-18.6069
USDMXN is consolidating its recent losses after stronger-than-expected GDP data suggests that Banxico does not need to be in any hurry to cut interest rates further. The currency pair may be weighed down by hopes that Democrats prevail in the US elections.
CHINA
PBoC Fix 6.7150 vs exp. 6.6489 (prev. 6.7146)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.79% to 4,016.92
Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView
