November 13, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4267, overnight range 1.4245-1.4269, close 1.4257.

USDCAD traded sideways but with a bullish bias in an uneventful overnight session with traders awaiting fresh US inflation data.

The widening of 2-year Canada/US interest rate spread from -127.4 on November 1, to -150.4 today, has fueled the rally. The 10-year Canada/US spread widened from -113.0 to -131.6 in the same period.

USDCAD is also being supported by soft domestic data which suggests that the Bank of Canada will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting, despite Governor Macklem’s hawkish rhetoric to the contrary.

WTI traded 87.85-89.20 as markets continue to try and make sense out of the barrage of contradictory comments from the white House.  Trump’s claim that Washington does not need a deal with Iran reads more like sanctions and a tighter blockade than a return to open warfare, and a surprise build in US crude and fuel inventories confirmed that demand is not exactly roaring. Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure and unverified Iranian claims of tankers being hit in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping a floor under prices.

There are a lot of rumours that US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will be asked to take a long walk off a very short pier, in the coming days. He is caught in the Huang scandal due to his support for US exports of Nvidia chips to China.

Today’s Canadian data includes Manufacturing Sales for September (forecast 0.1% m/m, August 1.5%) and Wholesale Sales (forecast 0.5%, August -1.6%).

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals have turned neutral, with prices treading water in a tight 1.4240-1.4271 band for the past 24 hours, just below resistance. The 4-hour MACD has crossed below its signal line for the first time since the November 6 breakout, and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 1.4235-1.4278, so the rally has run out of steam for now rather than reversed. A break above 1.4280 targets 1.4300. A drop below 1.4230 shifts the focus to 1.4200 and then 1.4180.

Longer term, USDCAD is pressing against a resistance cluster at 1.4275-1.4300. That zone combines the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2024 to February 2025 rally at 1.4275 with the October highs at 1.4292-1.4300. USDCAD remains well above the 100-day moving average at 1.4045 and the 200-day at 1.3913, but the daily RSI is at an extreme overbought level.  A daily close above 1.4300 would break the 1.3450-1.4300 range that has held all year and open the way to the February 2025 tariff peak at 1.4795. Another rejection would leave USDCAD exposed to a pullback toward the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.4115.

For today, USDCAD support is 1.4235 and 1.4200. Resistance is 1.4280 and 1.4300.

Today’s Range 1.4225-1.4295

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

US Inflation on the Menu

Today’s main course wasn’t a culinary delight for those expecting a hot PPI number. Headline PPI was 0.3%, a tick below the forecast of 0.4% m/m.  Core-PPI was 0.3% as expected (previous 1.4%) and the year-over-year number was unchanged at 5.0%. The results will not raise the odds for a 50 bp rate hike in December, which are currently 12.6%, but they still point to a sticky inflation problem.

There is a full parade of Fed-speakers to comment on the PPI result, including Michelle Bowman, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, San Francisco Fed President Lorie Daly and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.

Taking Stock

Asian markets finished mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 1.55%, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.71% while Japan’s Topix edged up 0.11%.

As of 5:40 am PT am, in Europe, the German Dax, the French CAC-40 and the UK FTSE 100 indices are flat while US S&P 500 futures are up 0.37%. The US 10-year yield is 5.129%, the DXY is 103.17 and gold (XAUUSD) is 3,895.17.

EURUSD | Range 1.1044-1.1073

EURUSD trickled lower, weighed down by broad US dollar strength and widening interest rate spreads between Europe and America. There is nothing on the Eurozone horizon that will counter the robust US growth or Trump’s Iran war inflation problem, leaving the single currency heading towards 1.1000.

GBPUSD | Range 1.3218-1.3244

Sterling is at the mid-point of its overnight range after a quiet session. A lack of domestic data today leaves little resistance to the broad dollar demand. Yesterday’s hot UK GDP numbers were not enough to offset positive US dollar sentiment because of inflation risks and strong employment numbers last week.

USDJPY | Range 159.67-160.19

USDJPY poked above 160 overnight, peaking at 160.19 before retreating. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama repeated that Tokyo will respond appropriately to currency volatility. The intervention threat is diminished because the rally is more about America than Japan. However, some dovish comments by BoJ board member Taichi Asada, warning about raising rates too fast, didn’t help.

AUDUSD | Range 0.6782-0.6815

AUDUSD is the worst-performing G10 currency against the US dollar this week, losing 2.03%, although year-to-date, it is the only currency that is higher, posting a gain of 1.80%. Australia is now the only G10 market where traders are pricing a rate cut next year.

USDMXN | Range 18.5189-18.6283

USDMXN traded quietly and sideways overnight then made its session in the wake of the PPI numbers.  The downside may be limited due to expectations that Banxico will leave rates unchanged even as the Fed adopts a more aggressive rate hike strategy. USDMXN continues to be underpinned by yesterday’s weak Industrial Output data, which fell 1.4% m/m. It is the steepest contraction since October 2024.

CHINA

PBoC Fix   6.7152 vs exp. 6.6756 (prev. 6.7174)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.68% to 4,016.29

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Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView